000
AXPZ20 KNHC 281022
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED JAN 28 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0915 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS FROM 4N78W 5N87W 2N100W 1N113W 4N124W 6N132W 6N140W.
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...
MID/UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OFF COAST OF COSTA RICA EXTENDS TO 120W 
S OF 20N WITH VERY DRY AIR MASS UNDER ITS COVERAGE DUE TO 
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE...INCLUDING ENTIRE LENGTH OF ITCZ. 
DRYNESS EXTEND ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL AMERICA...SRN HALF OF 
MEXICO ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND MOST OF GULF OF MEXICO EXCEPT 
EXTREME NW CORNER WHERE COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED.  UPPER LEVEL 
CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 28N136W BRINGS IN MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
EXTENDING TO 07N127W.  WEAK 80 KT JET CORE TRAPPED BETWEEN 
FEATURES ADVECTING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM SURFACE TROUGH NE TO 
BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NRN MEXICO.

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...
TROUGH FROM 15N124W TO 22N123W WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE 
DECOUPLING FROM UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.  PREVIOUS GALE FORCE WIND 
WARNING ALLOWED TO EXPIRE...BUT LINGERING NE TO E STRONG WINDS 
EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH 48 HRS.  

LARGE HIGH PRES CENTER 1039 MB AT 34N133W FORCED E BY 
APPROACHING COLD FRONT N OF AREA INCREASING NW WINDS ALONG BOTH 
SIDES OF BAJA CALIFORNIA COASTS.  ONCE FURTHER E OVER WRN CONUS 
...RIDGE EXPECTED TO HAVE TIGHTEN PRES GRADIENT TO WARRANT GALE 
FORCE WINDS IN GULF OF CALIFORNIA LASTING THROUGH 48 HRS.  

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO STRONG NE WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNABATED
THROUGH 48 HRS...BUT NOT MUCH LONGER AS ABOVE MENTIONED COLD 
FRONT ENTERING GULF OF MEXICO OUGHT TO FORCE RIDGE E...IF ONLY 
TO HAVE IT REPLACED BEYOND FORECAST PERIOD.  GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
EXPECTED TO HAVE ANOTHER GALE FORCE WIND EVENT SLIGHTLY AFTER 48 
HRS.
 
$$
WALLY BARNES