000 AXPZ20 KNHC 280340 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC WED JAN 28 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0315 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N78W 5N87W 2N100W 1N113W 4N124W 6N132W 6N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED. ...DISCUSSION... THE TAIL END OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. TO THE SW U.S. IN ITS WAKE...A MID/UPPER RIDGE EXISTS OVER THE NE PORTION OF THE AREA...AND STRETCHES SE TO A MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE MOVING E 10 KT NEAR 7N88W. A RATHER BROAD QUASI-STATIONARY MID/UPPER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION LIFTING N IS TO THE W OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NEAR 26N133W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SE TO 18N130W TO 13N121W...THEN BECOMES VERY NARROW TO A COL REGION NEAR 08N117W. THESE FEATURES ARE ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE ENVELOPE OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THAT EXTENDS WELL N OF THE AREA. WEAK UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 110W-119W. ANOTHER TROUGH EXTENDS NW FROM THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NW OF THE AREA. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 138W FROM 17N-23N. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE TO THE E OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION IS SUPPORTING A LARGE AREA OF MOSTLY OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS FROM 14N-29N E OF 130W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED WEAK TSTMS ARE WITHIN THIS AREA OF CLOUDS. EXTENSIVE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH POSSIBLE AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE ORIGINATING FROM THE CENTRAL TROPICAL PACIFIC BETWEEN 117W-129W IS BEING ADVECTED BY A STRONG UPPER JET STREAM BRANCH NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS MUCH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NW MEXICO. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY TRACK MORE TO THE NE ON WED...THEN GRADUALLY DAMPEN OUT JUST NE OF THE AREA IN UPPER ZONAL FLOW BEYOND 48 HOURS PER GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE. THIS WILL OCCUR AS THE ANTICYCLONE NEAR 37N141W AND RELATED RIDGING ALSO LIFT NE IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP LAYERED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WELL W OF THE AREA EJECTS NE WHILE BECOMING ABSORBED INTO A LONGWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO CLIP THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. THE SE EXTENSION OF THE DEEP RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA CONTINUES TO BRING MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH VERY DRY STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE E OF ABOUT 111W WHERE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING W...SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE DEEP TROPICS WITH AXIS FROM 9N112W TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR THE EQUATOR AT 106W. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE AREA OF MID/UPPER RIDGING HOLDS ACROSS THIS AREA. WITH REGARDS TO SURFACE WINDS...A VERY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT EXISTING BETWEEN THE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 138W AND STRONG HIGH PRES CENTERED N OF THE AREA IS RESULTING IN AN AREAS OF E 30-35 KT GALE WINDS FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN 128W-138W. MODELS IN GENERAL GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THESE WINDS DIMINISH TO BELOW GALE FORCE IN ABOUT 6 HOURS AS THE HIGH CENTER LIFTS SOME TO THE N. THE MAIN IMPACT OVER THESE WATERS WILL BE VERY HIGH SEAS IN THE 10-16FT RANGE IN THE GALE AFFECTED AREA...AND 8-13 FT ELSEWHERE N OF 19N W OF 120W. THESE SEAS ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE TO 9 FT IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. STRONG PRES GRADIENT DEVELOPING OVER THE SW U.S. AND AND NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA IS BRINGING MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS TO THE GULF. THESE ARE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO BELOW GALE FORCE IN ABOUT 18 HOURS PENDING A JUSTIFICATION FROM A WEAKER PRES GRADIENT. NE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20 KT ARE FORECAST TO IN INCREASE SOME IN 24 HOURS...THEN DIMINISH TO JUST NEAR 20 KT IN 48 HOURS AS SW CARIBBEAN TRADES WEAKEN DUE TO A LIGHTER PRES GRADIENT. $$ AGUIRRE