000
AXPZ20 KNHC 271028
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE JAN 27 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0830 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS FROM 02N79W TO 03N90W TO 01N105W TO 08N129W TO 06N140W.
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
MID-UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 24N135W VERY WELL 
DEFINED SATELLITE HAS INDUCED SURFACE LOW PRES AT 22N133W WHICH 
IS DRIFTING W.  MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AREA 
SITS OVER SURFACE TROUGH FROM 17N131W TO 26N134W ENHANCING AREA 
OF NUMEROUS MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 
NM OF TROUGH AXIS.  BROAD ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AT 
08N88W HAS DRY AIR MASS UNDER ITS UMBRELLA DUE TO MODERATE TO 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE.

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...
LARGE HIGH PRES 1035 MB AT 34N133W FORCED SE BY APPROACHING COLD 
FRONT WELL N OF AREA EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN GRADIENT AGAINST BAJA 
CALIFORNIA AND EVENTUALLY FORCE NW WINDS ALONG ITS W COAST. 

MOREOVER...PRES GRADIENT EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO THE POINT OF 
FORCING GALE FORCE WINDS DOWN INTO GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 28N 
BY 48 HRS AND EVENTUALLY SPREADING S TO 24N BEYOND FORECAST 
PERIOD.  

GAP WINDS...GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WINDS DIMINISHING GRADUALLY AND 
EXPECTED TO BECOME BELOW 20 KT WITHIN 12 HRS.  GULF OF PAPAGAYO 
WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD AS ATLC/
CARIBBEAN HIGH PRES SHOWS NO SIGN OF WEAKENING OR MOVING AWAY 
FROM ITS PRESENT POSITION.

$$
WALLY BARNES