000
AXPZ20 KNHC 262202
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON JAN 26 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2130 UTC.

...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE CAN BE FOUND ALONG THE AXIS FROM 
03N77W TO 05N86W TO 02N102W TO 08N130W TO 06N140W. NUMEROUS 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM N AND 90 NM S OF AXIS FROM 
127W TO 129W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE MID LEVEL CUT OFF LOW OVER NW WATERS IS CURRENTLY WELL 
DEFINED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR 22N134W.  STRONG UPPER 
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE REAR RIGHT QUADRANT OF THE 
SOUTHWESTERLY JET ON THE NE SIDE OF THE LOW AND LEFT FRONT 
QUADRANT OF THE APPROACHING WEST-NORTHWESTERLY JET ON THE SOUTH 
SIDE OF THE LOW HAS BECOME A SIGNIFICANT FOCUS FOR CONVECTION 
WITH NUMEROUS MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED E OF 
THE SURFACE TROUGH BETWEEN 119W TO 130W FROM 13N TO 27N.  THIS 
LOW IS BEGINNING TO TRANSLATE TO THE SURFACE...WITH THE SURFACE 
TROUGH NOTED FROM 12N130W TO 18N130W TO 23N129W TO 27N128W. THE 
QUIKSCAT PASS AT 1400 UTC CONFIRMED WINDS TO GALE FORCE FROM 23N 
TO 26N BETWEEN 129W AND 133W.  THE AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE 
IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN TUE/WED AS THE UPPER TO MID 
LEVEL LOW WEAKENS AND IS FORCED NORTHWARD ON THE LEADING EDGE OF 
THE DEEP LAYERED LOW N OF HAWAII AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AT THE 
SURFACE BUILDS TO ITS N. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO 
SURFACE FEATURES WILL KEEP WINDS OVER NW WATERS AT GALE FORCE 
THROUGH WED MORNING.  

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO 
AND HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS 
INCREASED THE WINDS ABOVE 20 KT WITHIN 180 NM OF THE W COAST OF 
THE BAJA N OF 25N.  THE 1400 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS CONFIRMED THE 
INCREASE IN WINDS HERE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND SOUTHWARD 
ALONG THE ENTIRE BAJA WEST COAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS LOW 
PRESSURE OVER THE U.S. PLAINS DROPS SOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE.  
THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING A COLD FRONT AND 20 TO 
25 KT NORTHERLY FLOW SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA 
BEGINNING TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

GAP WINDS...QUIKSCAT PASS AT 1214 UTC SHOWED THE AREA OF WINDS 
GREATER THAN 25 KT CONTINUES TO PERSIST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC N OF 14N. WINDS ARE EXCEPTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH 
HERE TO BELOW 20 KT BY TUE EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO 
THE N ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SLACKENS AHEAD OF THE 
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

FARTHER S...THE SAME QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 1214 UTC REVEALS THAT 
WINDS HAVE INCREASED BACK TO 20 KT IN THE GULF OF FONSECA AND 
REMAIN IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO.  FOR NOW...LITTLE CHANGE IN EXPECTED IN CONDITIONS 
HERE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

IN THE GULF OF PANAMA...THERE HAS NOT BEEN A SCATTEROMETER PASS 
HERE SINCE YESTERDAY.  THE ONLY OBSERVATION AVAILABLE IS ON LAND 
AT TOCUMEN...PANAMA ON THE PACIFIC COAST.  WINDS THERE HAVE 
DIMINISHED TO 10 KT AT 1900 UTC AFTER REPORTING 20 KT EARLIER IN 
THE DAY.

$$
SCHAUER CLARK