000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030920
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT JAN 03 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...03N77W TO 
07N110W TO 09N120W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE POINT 09.5N115W AND 
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE POINT 11N117W. 

...DISCUSSION...
DEEP LAYER LONGWAVE TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES IS NORTH OF A LINE 
FROM 32N106W TO 27N108W TO 24N120W TO 21N130W TO 19N140W. THE 
AREA NORTH OF THIS LINE IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND 
UPPER LEVELS WITH OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS IN THE LOWER LEVELS 
EXCEPT FOR A CLEAR AREA FROM 27N TO 29N W OF 127W. THE TROUGH IS 
FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE AND BE REINFORCED AS A STRONG 
SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE PACIFIC OCEAN 
REGION IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS 
NORTH OF THE ITCZ FROM 113W TO 124W AND IS ENHANCING ITCZ 
CONVECTION. ASSOCIATED MULTI LEVEL CLOUDS EXTEND NORTH OF THE 
ITCZ TO 15N THEN TURNS NORTHEAST AND IS FLOWING OVER CENTRAL 
MEXICO WITH AREAS OF OVERCAST MULTI LEVEL CLOUDS AND EMBEDDED 
CONVECTION WITH SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN THE AREA FROM 14N TO 16N FROM 113W TO 118W. 
THE AREA SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM 25N97.5W TO 15N110W TO 07N115W 
TO 05N140W IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS. 
IN THE LOWER LEVELS IT IS ALSO CLOUD FREE EXCEPT FOR BROKEN TO 
OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS SOUTH OF THE ITCZ EAST OF 111W AND FROM 
115W TO 125W.

MODERATE SURFACE RIDGE IS NORTH OF 14N WEST OF 112W. SURFACE LOW 
IS CENTERED NEAR 10N123W 1010 MB AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE LITTLE 
THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

GAP WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT CONTINUE IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO 
REGION. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST FROM MIDNIGHT TO NOON. 
BECAUSE OF THE INTERMITTENT NATURE OF THE WINDS AND THE SHORT 
FETCH SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 8 FT.

NORTHERLY GAP WINDS ARE ALSO OCCURRING IN THE GULF OF PANAMA 
REGION WITH WINDS APPROACHING 20 KT AND SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. 
THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO END SUNDAY.

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LL