000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280316
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN DEC 28 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ALONG A LINE FROM 
06N77W TO 07N85W TO 05N95W TO 09112W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 125W AND 
130W. 

...DISCUSSION...
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL DEAMPLIFY AS A DEEP LAYER 
TROUGH OVER THE FAR NE PACIFIC FLATTENS AN UPPER RIDGE N OF THE 
AREA...AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S SHIFTS EAST. A 
1031 MB HIGH PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED 
NEAR 32N134W MOVING TO THE ESE. THIS IS ALLOWING WINDS N OF 25N 
TO DIMINISH...BUT IS MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG TRADES FURTHER 
SOUTH FROM ROUGHLY 11N TO 25N W OF 120W. LONG PERIOD SWELL TO 16 
FT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD AS WELL. THE TRADES DIMINISH 
THROUGH MON AS THE HIGH SHIFTS FURTHER SOUTH AND WEAKENS. 
FURTHER SOUTH...CROSS-EQUATORIAL WINDS UP TO 20 KT NOTED SOUTH 
OF ITCZ W OF 120W DIMINISHES THROUGH SUNDAY.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...EARLIER SCATTEROMETER AND LAND BASED 
OBSERVATIONS SHOW 20 TO 25 KT WINDS DOWN THE LENGTH OF THE GULF 
OF MEXICO...RELATED TO A 1034 MB HIGH PRES OVER THE GREAT BASIN. 
WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUN INTO MON AS THE HIGH PRES SHIFTS EAST 
AND WEAKENS.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...EXPECT WINDS TO START INCREASING BY LATE 
SUN IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO 
BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING OFF THE TEXAS COAST. WINDS 
WILL INCREASE FURTHER MONDAY AS THE HIGH PRES SHIFTS SOUTH INTO 
THE GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS TO AT LEAST 30 KT ARE EXPECTED...AND A 
GALE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR LATER MONDAY.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...PERSISTENT STRONG TRADES OVER THE CARIBBEAN 
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO INTO MONDAY.

GULF OF PANAMA AND COLOMBIAN PACIFIC COAST...A SHIP ON THE 
PACIFIC SIDE OF THE CANAL ENTRANCE RECENTLY REPORTED 20 KT 
NORTHERLY WINDS...RELATED TO STRONG TRADES IN THE CARIBBEAN. 
SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS FURTHER SOUTH 
ALONG THE COLOMBIAN COAST. THIS IS COUPLED WITH THE NORTHERLY 
TRADE WIND FLOW THROUGH PANAMA TO FORM A WEAK 
ROTATION...ENHANCING THE SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSIST THROUGH THE 
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

$$
CHRISTENSEN