000
AXPZ20 KNHC 272208
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT DEC 27 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2130 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ALONG A LINE FROM 
06N77W TO 08N128W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
WITHIN 90 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 123W AND 126W...AND WITHIN 60 NM 
N OF AXIS W OF 135W. 

...DISCUSSION...
A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS CONTINUE TO FLATTEN AN UPPER 
RIDGE N OF THE AREA AND DIG INTO THE BASE OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH 
OVER THE WESTERN U.S. 1033 MB HIGH PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED NEAR 32N135W MOVING TO THE ESE. THIS IS 
ALLOWING WINDS N OF 25N TO DIMINISH...BUT MAINTAINING FRESH TO 
STRONG TRADES FURTHER SOUTH FROM ROUGHLY 11N TO 25N W OF 120W. 
LONG PERIOD SWELL TO 16 FT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD AS WELL. 
THE TRADES DIMINISH THROUGH MON AS THE HIGH SHIFTS FURTHER SOUTH 
AND WEAKENS. FURTHER SOUTH...CROSS-EQUATORIAL WINDS UP TO 20 KT 
NOTED SOUTH OF ITCZ W OF 120W DIMINISHES THROUGH SUNDAY.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...SCATTEROMETER AND LAND BASED OBSERVATIONS 
SHOW 20 TO 25 KT WINDS DOWN THE LENGTH OF THE GULF OF 
MEXICO...RELATED TO 1036 MB HIGH PRES OVER THE GREAT BASIN. 
WINDS MAY SLIGHTLY STRONGER IN THE NORTHERN REACHES OF THE GULF 
ALTHOUGH ARE NOT ADEQUATELY SAMPLED BY SCATTEROMETER IMAGERY. 
SEAS ARE BUILDING TO 8 FT...BUT EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO 
DIMINISH THROUGH SUN AS THE HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH WEAKENS.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...EXPECT WINDS TO START INCREASING BY LATE 
SUN IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO 
BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH TEXAS CURRENTLY. WINDS WILL 
CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO MONDAY AS THE HIGH PRES SHIFTS SOUTH. 
WINDS TO AT LEAST 30 KT ARE EXPECTED...AND A GALE WARNING MAY BE 
REQUIRED FOR LATER MONDAY SHORTLY.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...PERSISTENT STRONG TRADES OVER THE CARIBBEAN 
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO INTO MONDAY.

GULF OF PANAMA AND COLOMBIAN PACIFIC COAST...FRESH SOUTHERLY 
WINDS ARE NOTED IN SCATTEROMETER ALONG THE COLOMBIAN COAST. THIS 
IS COUPLED WITH NORTHERLY TRADE WIND FLOW THROUGH PANAMA FORMING 
A WEAK ROTATION. THE ENHANCED SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST 
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

$$
CHRISTENSEN