000
AXPZ20 KNHC 261515
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI DEC 26 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ALONG THE LINE... 
05N77W TO 06N110W TO 09N130W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN THE AREA FROM 07N TO 15N FROM 118W TO 124W.

...DISCUSSION...
DEEP LAYER LONGWAVE TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES CONTINUES OVER THE 
AREA NORTH OF A LINE THROUGH 32N108W TO 26N115W TO 23N120W TO 
22N125W TO 27N140W. THE AREA WITHIN 300 NM N OF THIS LINE IS DRY 
AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS. BEYOND THE 300 NM 
THE AREA IS CLOUD FREE BUT MOIST IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS. 
THE LOWER LEVELS ARE COVERED IN OVERCAST TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS 
CLOUDS. NO WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. NORTHERLY 
WINDS APPROACHING 20 KNOTS ARE IN THE LOWER LEVELS WITH A LARGE 
AREA OF NORTHERLY SWELL OF UP TO 13 FEET. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST 
TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN AND BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY BE 
BECOMING DIFFUSE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. 

SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY MIDDLE AND UPPER FLOW OVER THE AREA WEST 
OF 125W AND SOUTH OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED LINE HAS BROUGHT 
MOISTURE AND BROKEN TO SCATTERED MAINLY UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS FROM 
THE DEEP TROPICS TO THIS AREA. 

SOUTH OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED TROUGH BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW 
PREDOMINATES. 

EXCEPT FOR SOME ITCZ CONVECTION EAST OF 90W THE AREA EAST OF 
110W IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS. IN 
THE LOWER LEVEL BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS IS OBSERVED 
SOUTH OF THE ITCZ AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE BETWEEN 
08N AND 10N ACROSS THIS REGION.

CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN THE LAST 24 HOURS NEAR A SURFACE 
TROUGH ANALYZED ALONG 125W FROM 05N TO 15N. ASSOCIATED 
CONVECTION IS MENTIONED IN THE ITCZ SECTION.

A MODERATE SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF 
THE AREA AND EXTENDS OVER THE AREA NORTH OF 15N WEST OF 110W. 
ELSEWHERE A BROAD TROUGH IS ANALYZED AT THE SURFACE.

GAP WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS CONTINUE IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO 
REGION WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS FROM MIDNIGHT TO NOON. THIS WILL 
CONTINUE THROUGH 48 HOURS.

NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL BEGIN TONIGHT AND 
INCREASE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT REACH 20 TO 30 KNOTS LATE 
SATURDAY.

$$
LL