000
AXPZ20 KNHC 261001
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI DEC 26 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0945 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS 08N78W TO 09N86W TO 
05N104W TO 09N128W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 30 NM OF 05.5N77W AND 04N82W AND 
ALSO WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 09N126W TO 07N135W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN INITIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE N PORTION OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA FROM 32N110W TO 26N129W AND HAS LEFT A CUT OFF 
UPPER CYCLONE W OF THE AREA NEAR 17N153W. A SECOND SHORTWAVE IS 
JUST N OF THE AREA FROM 35N120W TO 32N132W AND IS MOVING RAPIDLY 
S. DRY UPPER AIR IS NOTED OVER THE AREA WITHIN 300 NM N OF LINE 
FROM 32N104W TO 25N120W TO 28N140W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 
20N122W HAS A RIDGE EXTENDING N ACROSS THE EQUATOR TO ALONG 24N 
BETWEEN 140W AND 120W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION 
ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 120W AND 140W...AND OVER THE E SEMICIRCLE 
OF THE UPPER CYCLONE. THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE IS SPREADING 
NORTHWARD OVER THE AREA FROM 07N TO 24N W OF 112W...BUT NOW 
SEEMS TO BE EVAPORATING NEAR 20N120W. HOWEVER A DENSE MOISTURE 
PLUME CONTINUES FROM NORTHERN OLD MEXICO TO ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 22N97W TO 03S97W AND AN UPPER 
RIDGE EXTENDS NW FROM VENEZUELA TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. 
A FEW SHOWERS ARE ENHANCED ALONG THE PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS OF 
COLOMBIA AND PANAMA...BUT THE DEBRIS MOISTURE EVAPORATES IN 
ROUGHLY THE SAME AREA. OTHERWISE VERY DRY UPPER AIR IS NOTED 
OVER THE AREA S OF 27N E OF 102W.

AT THE LOW LEVELS A FRONT HAS MOVED OVER THE NORTHERN BAJA 
PENINSULA. NORTHERLY WINDS 20 TO 25 KT AND SEAS TO 18 FT HAVE 
SPREAD S OVER THE SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC WATERS AS A RIDGE BUILDS 
SE FROM 32N138W TO 20N102W. NE TRADES TO THE S OF THE RIDGE 
WILL  INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT AS THE NORTHERLY SWELL TO 8 FT 
SPREADS S ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS REACHING THE EQUATOR W OF 
130W LATE SAT NIGHT. 

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS 20 TO 25 KT ARE 
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THESE WINDS WILL 
SHIFT TO NNW AT 15 TO 20 KT ON SAT...FURTHER INCREASING TO 20 TO 
25 KT THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY LATE SUN.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...LATEST QUIKSCAT AND SSMI DATA OVER THE SW 
CARIBBEAN INDICATE THAT NE 20 TO 25 KT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO 
SQUEEZE INTO THE PACIFIC WATERS FROM 08N TO 12N TO THE E OF 98W 
FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 3 DAYS. 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...WEAK RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS 
EXPECTED TO GIVE ONE LAST NORTHERLY SURGE TO 20 KT THIS MORNING 
AND THEN DIMINISH BY NOON.

NE WINDS 15 KT ARE OVER AND DOWNSTREAM OF COSTA RICA WHILE 
SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KT AND SEAS TO 8 FT ARE ALONG THE W 
COAST OF COLOMBIA. A LOW LEVEL TROUGH IS INDUCED WITH 
INTERMITTENT CONVECTION. 

$$
NELSON