000
AXPZ20 KNHC 252224
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU DEC 25 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2130 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ALONG THE 
LINE...05N77W TO 04N80W TO 09N122W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE WITHIN 45 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 79W TO 82W. 

...DISCUSSION...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS DIGGING INTO THE BASE OF A LONG WAVE 
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AHEAD OF A REX BLOCK PATTERN NEAR 
HAWAII ALONG 150W. AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH IS PUSHING THROUGH 
NORTHERN BAJA CURRENTLY. ASCAT DATA HINTS OF FRESH TO STRONG SW 
WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA...AND FRESH NW FLOW OFF THE NORTHERN PACIFIC COAST OF 
BAJA. A SECOND SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN THE 
MID/UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI...THEN DIG 
INTO THE WEST COAST AS WELL. THIS WILL ALLOW 1035 MB SURFACE 
HIGH PRES NEAR 35N145W TO SHIFT SE THROUGH SAT...ENHANCING TRADE 
WINDS ON ITS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY AND NW WINDS OFF THE BAJA 
PACIFIC COAST. HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN IN THE WAKE 
OF THE SECOND SHORT WAVE TROUGH...ALLOWING NORTHERLY WINDS TO 
INCREASE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA WATERS BY LATE 
SAT. 

FURTHER SOUTH...STRONG TRADES OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUE TO 
FUNNEL INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH SAT. ENHANCED SW WINDS 
OFF ECUADOR AND SOUTHERN PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA WERE NOTED ON 
ASCAT DATA EARLIER...AND THIS TREND WILL PERSIST THROUGH SAT AS 
WELL. FURTHER WEST...CROSS-EQUATORIAL S TO SE FLOW IS NOTED W OF 
115W...WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.

$$
CHRISTENSEN