000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250955
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU DEC 25 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0945 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS 09N84W TO 09N90W TO 
09N115W TO 10N118W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
NOTED E OF 83W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
NOTED WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 07N112W TO 11N122W 
AND ALSO WITHIN 60 NM OF 13N140W.

...DISCUSSION...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA 35N122W TO 29N140W INTO AN UPPER CYCLONE AT 17N150W. DRY 
UPPER AIR IS NOTED OVER THE AREA N OF 27N W OF 115W. AN UPPER 
ANTICYCLONE S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 11N123W WITH A RIDGE N ALONG 
120W TO NEAR 27N116W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION 
ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 112W AND 125W AND NEAR 14N140W AND ALSO 
OVER THE NE SEMICIRCLE OF THE UPPER CYCLONE MENTIONED ABOVE. THE 
DEBRIS MOISTURE IS SPREADING NORTHWARD OVER THE ARE W OF THE 
UPPER RIDGE...ROUGHLY FROM 07N TO 26N BETWEEN 112W AND 146W.   

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS ALONG 105W FROM 25N TO 05S. VERY DRY 
UPPER AIR IS NOTED OVER THE AREA S OF 27N BETWEEN 110W AND 83W. 

AT THE LOW LEVELS A FRONT IS ALONG 32N119W TO 22N126W. NORTHERLY 
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT AND SEAS TO 20 FT ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. AS THE 
NORTHERN SEGMENT OF FRONT CONTINUES E ACROSS THE BAJA PENINSULA 
THE LOW LEVEL TRADE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT OVER THE 
TROPICS WHILE BECOMING N TO NE OVER THE SUBTROPICS. 

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY OVER 
THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL REMNANTS 
FRI AND SHIFT TO THE NNW AT 15 TO 20 KT ON SAT...FURTHER 
INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA BY LATE SUN. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST SURFACE PRES OVER 
THE NW CONUS COULD POSSIBLE TRIGGER LOCALIZED NEAR GALE WINDS 
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...LATEST QUIKSCAT DATA SHOWS NE 20 KT WINDS 
CONTINUE. STRONG E TRADE WINDS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN SHOULD 
MAINTAIN E 20 KT WINDS THROUGH 48 HOURS. 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...WEAK RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO MAY 
INDUCE WINDS TO 20 KT BY MID MORNING TODAY THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH 
BY AFTERNOON. 

$$
NELSON