000
AXPZ20 KNHC 242226
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED DEC 24 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2130 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...06N77W TO 
06N90W TO 10N115W TO 07N135W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 
07N TO 09N BETWEEN 115W AND 120W.

...DISCUSSION...
E OF 110W...A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING SHOWED 
FRESH GAP WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE 
RESULT OF STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW OVER CARIBBEAN. FURTHER 
NORTH...THERE ARE SOME INDICATION THAT WEAK RIDGING OVER THE 
GULF OF MEXICO MAY INDUCE WINDS TO 20 KT IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. CONFIDENCE ON THIS LOW 
HOWEVER CONSIDERING THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IN THE SW GULF OF 
MEXICO. OTHERWISE...MODEST CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ AT THE BASE 
OF AN UPPER TROUGH HAS DISSIPATED WITH GENERALLY DRY AIR 
PREVAILING IN THE MID AND UPPER REACHES OF THE ATMOSPHERE.

W OF 110W...AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE INTO FRI AS 
A PAIR OF VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGHS DIG INTO SOUTHERN 
CALIFORNIA TO THE EAST OF A DEVELOPING REX BLOCK OVER HAWAII. A 
1001 MB SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST SHORT WAVE IS 
CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST NEAR 34N126W...AND IS 
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST AND ONSHORE THROUGH 24 HOURS. A TRAILING 
COLD FRONT IS NOTED THROUGH 26N135W. ASCAT DATA FROM 19Z SHOW 
STRONG NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT.  IN FACT A CRUISE SHIP IN THAT 
AREA INDICATED WINDS TO 45 KT...VERIFYING A GALE WARNING IN 
PLACE. STRONG SW WINDS TO 30 KT ARE NOTE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS 
WELL. THIS SW FLOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA BY LATE THU. MEANWHILE A 1036 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES 
AREA CENTERED NW OF THE AREA WILL SHIFT SE...AHEAD OF A STRONG 
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE FAR NE PACIFIC OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 
HOURS. AS THE HIGH PRES SHIFTS SOUTH...TRADE WIND FLOW INCREASES 
ON ITS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY AND OFF THE N BAJA COAST. LONG PERIOD 
NORTHERLY SWELL UP TO 18 FT FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT MOVES 
EAST INTO MEXICO. LOOKING AHEAD TO THE WEEKEND...A SHORT WAVE 
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST IN THE WAKE OF THE SECOND SHORT 
WAVE TROUGH BY SAT. THIS RESULTS IN DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE HIGH 
OVER THE GREAT BASIN THIS WEEKEND...POSSIBLY OPENING THE DOOR TO 
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA.

$$
CHRISTENSEN