000
AXPZ20 KNHC 241515
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED DEC 24 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...05N77W TO 
05N100W TO 08N110W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE POINT 08N111.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN THE AREA FROM 07N TO 09N 
BETWEEN 116.5W AND 122.5W.

OTHER CONVECTION NORTH OF THE ITCZ. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE POINTS 15N127W AND 12.5N132.5W.

...DISCUSSION...
DEEP LAYER TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES IS OVER THE AREA NORTH OF 
ABOUT 23N. THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA FOR THE LAST 
SEVERAL DAYS AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 48 HOURS MOVING 
SLIGHTLY EAST AS A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHWEST CORNER 
OF THE AREA. MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED CLOUDS ARE NORTH OF 32N OVER 
CALIFORNIA. A STRONG SHORTWAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH 
TODAY AND IS THE CAUSE OF THE STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT 
OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA. 

A CUTOFF CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS LOCATED WEST OF THE AREA NEAR 
18N147W. THIS FEATURE HAS ALSO CONTINUED THROUGH THE LAST FEW 
DAYS AS IT DRIFTS WEST SOUTHWEST AND SLOWLY WEAKENS. THE BROAD 
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER IS ADVECTING DEEP LAYER 
MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS FROM THE ITCZ OVER THE AREA WEST OF 125W 
SOUTH OF 22N. A COUPLE OF AREAS OF CONVECTION ARE EMBEDDED 
WITHIN THIS AREA AND ARE MENTIONED IN THE ITCZ SECTION.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN THE MIDDLE 
AND UPPER LEVELS. EXCEPT FOR SOME ISOLATED ITCZ CONVECTION THE 
AREA EAST OF 110W IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 
LEVELS...AND ALSO IN THE LOWER LEVELS EXCEPT FOR BROKEN TO 
OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS SOUTH OF THE ITCZ.

COLD FRONT IS ALONG THE LINE THROUGH 32N128W TO 30N130W TO 
28N140W. A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST NORTH 
OF THE FRONT TODAY.  OTHERWISE A WEAK RIDGE IS ANALYZED NORTH OF 
18N. ELSEWHERE A BROAD TROUGH IS ANALYZED AT THE SURFACE.

GAP WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE INTERMITTENTLY IN THE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FEET DUE TO THE 
LIMITED FETCH.

$$
LL