000
AXPZ20 KNHC 201010
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT DEC 20 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0930 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
04N77W TO 07N85W TO 06N102W TO 11N121W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED 
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 111W 
AND 113W...FROM 08N TO 09N BETWEEN 117W AND 118W. SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
07N TO 10N BETWEEN 120W AND 140W.

...DISCUSSION...

A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS FROM SOUTHERN BAJA 
CALIFORNIA TO 20N112W 18N120W TO 16N126W TO 12N133W. NUMEROUS 
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 111W 
AND 112W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 13.5N120W...
AND FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 124W AND 128W.

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 22N132W TO 03N134W. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW
COVERS THE AREA NORTH OF THE EQUATOR WEST OF 115W. MIDDLE TO 
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ON TOP OF THE AREA
WHERE THE DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS LOCATED.
NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 20 TO 30 KT AND 
SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 08 TO 12 FT ROUGHLY FROM 10N TO 28N
WEST OF 110W FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS...TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST
OF THE FRONT...AND DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH RESPECT
TO A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 32N129W.  

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO
THE EAST OF THE CYCLONIC CENTER AND TROUGH...NORTH OF THE ITCZ.
THIS FLOW IS ANTICYCLONIC THANKS TO AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION CENTER IN THE EAST-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

GAP WINDS...
NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 20 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
TO LESS THAN 20 KT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

$$
MT