000
AXPZ20 KNHC 191006
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI DEC 19 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0930 UTC.

...ITCZ...

FROM 07N77W TO 05N95W TO 11N118W 7N130W TO 05N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 7N TO 8N BETWEEN 110W AND 111W...AND FROM 14N TO 15N 
BETWEEN 110W AND 112W.   

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH IS DIGGING THROUGH 32N134W TO 
11N135W INTO THE ITCZ NEAR 4N136W. A CUT-OFF MIDDLE TO UPPER 
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS DEVELOPING NEAR 12N125W.
A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 26N109W TO 20N114W TO 17N120W
TO 12N129W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN 110W AND 130W.
NORTHWEST-TO-NORTHERLY WINDS RANGING FROM 20 TO 25 KT ARE
NORTH OF THE FRONT. THE MAIN MARINE IMPACT WILL CONTINUE
TO BE NORTHERLY SWELLS UP TO 11 FT THAT ARE TRAINING SOUTHWARD
BEHIND THE FRONT TOWARD THE EQUATORIAL ZONE. THE WAVEWATCH 
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THESE SWELLS WILL DECAY SLOWLY DURING
THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT NOW ENTERING THE 
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA QUICKLY PUSHES TO ALONG
30N134W TO 26N140W IN 24 HOURS...AND THEN LOSES ITS IDENTITY
IN 48 HOURS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 20 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN 24 HOURS...WHILE WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE 
SHOWS SEAS ONLY BUILDING TO ABOUT 7 OR 8 FT THROUGH TONIGHT 
BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 6 OR 7 FT FRI NIGHT OR EARLIER.

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN TO THE EAST OF THIS LONG WAVE 
TROUGH IS ANTICYCLONIC...THANKS TO AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
CENTER IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.

GAP WINDS...
N-NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND 
PAPAGAYO ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT IN ABOUT 24 HOURS 
THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND TO LESS THAN 20 KT IN
36 HOURS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT IN 48 HOURS. 

$$
MT