000
AXPZ20 KNHC 152120
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON DEC 15 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...04N77W TO 08N91W TO 09N100W TO 
07N107W TO 09N188W TO 07N140W...04N77W TO 08N100W TO 08N125W TO 
06N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 
NM OF THE POINT 08N100.5W.

...DISCUSSION...
DEEP LAYER TROUGH AXIS IS ALONG THE LINE TROUGH 31N100W TO 
25N115W TO 25N125W TO 15N130W TO 14N140W. EXCEPT FOR UPPER 
MOISTURE OF 28N EAST OF 134W THE AREA NORTH AND WEST OF THE 
TROUGH AXIS IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 
LEVELS. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT 
LEAST 3 TO 4 DAYS. SOME MINOR TROUGH DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST IN 
THE WESTERN ITCZ REGION DUE TO THIS TROUGH. A BROAD PLUME OF 
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH AREAS OF UPPER CLOUDINESS EXTENDS 
WITH 800 NM SE OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND IS ADVECTING OVER NORTH OF 
20N.

REMAINDER OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS COVERED BY BROAD 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.

NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 115W THE AREA IS COVERED BY BROKEN TO 
OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS. SOUTH OF THE ITCZ BROKEN 
STRATOCUMULUS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS NORTH OF 14N WEST OF 110W. REMAINDER OF 
THE AREA IS UNDER BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW.

GAP WINDS OF 20 TO OCCASIONALLY 25 KNOTS AND SEAS AT OR JUST 
BELOW 8 FT WILL CONTINUE FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION 
EXTENDING W TO SW...TO NEAR 94W THROUGH AT LEAST 48 HOURS.

$$
LL