000 AXPZ20 KNHC 151559 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC MON DEC 15 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1400 UTC. ...ITCZ... INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...04N77W TO 08N91W TO 09N100W TO 07N107W TO 09N188W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM S AND 120 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 97W TO 108W WILL CONTINUE NEXT 12 HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WESTWARD MOVING PERTURBATION. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 85W EAST AND NORTHEASTWARD TO THE COASTLINES WILL PERSIST MAINLY WITHIN 60 NM OF THE COAST OF ECUADOR...ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY AND ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ACROSS PANAMA/ECUADOR. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 132W AND 115W WILL PROPAGATE W THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE PERSISTS ACROSS THIS ZONE. ...DISCUSSION... A BROAD LARGE SCALE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA...WITH AXIS CENTERED ALONG 124W. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS LIES A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH ITS AXIS ALONG 27N124W TO A MID LEVEL LOW NEAR 21N129W AND IS SUPPORTING A WEAKENING COLD FRONT ACROSS NW MEXICO AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA...THAT HAS STALLED TO NEAR 23N128W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION NORTH THROUGH NORTHWEST OF THIS FRONT. LARGE NW TO N SWELL GENERATED BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE S AND SE DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS...WITH SEAS BUILDING 8 TO 10 FT 22N TO 24N...AND 10 TO 12 FT 24N TO 32N. A STATIONARY AND BLOCKING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA IS ACTING TO SHEAR UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE...AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS...FROM THE ITCZ E OF 135W AND N TO 20N...N AND NE ACROSS THE BAJA...NORTHERN MEXICO...AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD 80-100 KT JET. SUBSIDENCE TO THE W AND SW OF THE MID LEVEL LOW NEAR 21N129W HAS INDUCED MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES S OF 20N AND W ALMOST TO THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII. THIS MID TO UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BEYOND THIS TIME THE BROAD TROUGH NORTH OF THE AREA IS FORECAST TO SHARPEN AND DIG SOUTH INTO NORTH PORTIONS OF THE AREA BEFORE 72 HOURS. THIS WILL REINFORCE THE N SURFACE WIND FLOW ACROSS N AND NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND YIELD ADDITIONAL PULSES OF LARGE N SWELL. MODERATE S TO SE TRADES AND LONG PERIOD SW SWELL WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA S OF THE ITCZ TO THE COAST OF S AMERICA THROUGH 12 HOURS. REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS COVERED BY BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. GAP WINDS OF 20 TO OCCASIONALLY 25 KNOTS AND SEAS AT OR JUST BELOW 8 FT WILL CONTINUE FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION EXTENDING W TO SW...TO NEAR 94W THROUGH AT LEAST 48 HOURS. $$ STRIPLING