000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150321
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON DEC 15 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...ALSO KNOW AS THE ITCZ...IS 
ALONG THE LINE...06.5N77W TO 06.5N115W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS 
FROM 96W TO 109W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM 
OF THE POINT 06N118W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 
NM OF THE POINT 10.5N133.5W.

...DISCUSSION...
LARGE SCALE DEEP LAYER TROUGH WITH AXIS FROM 30N103W TO 15N140W. 
SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND THIN HIGH CLOUDS ARE N OF 30N E OF 
132W OTHERWISE THE AREA WEST OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS DRY AND CLOUD 
FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST 
STRATOCUMULUS IS N OF 17N WEST OF THE AXIS TO 135W. BROKEN 
STRATOCUMULUS IS OBSERVED N OF 20N WEST OF 135W. THE TROUGH IS 
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY THROUGH 72 HOURS AND REMAIN IN PLACE. THIS 
FEATURE IS FORECAST TO CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SURFACE TROUGH IN THE ITCZ WEST OF 125W IN 3 TO 4 DAYS. A PLUME 
OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDS WITHIN 500 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE 
TROUGH AXIS EAST OF 110W AND THE AREA SOUTH OF THE TROUGH AXIS 
TO THE ITCZ WEST OF 110W. ONLY SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ARE 
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PLUME OF MOISTURE E OF 122W WITH BROKEN TO 
OVERCAST MULTI LEVEL CLOUDS WEST OF 122W.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS COVERED BY BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. 

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NOTED OVER THE AREA WITH BROAD 
TROUGH ALONG THE ITCZ AND A VERY WEAK RIDGE ALONG 30N. A DYING 
COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA WEST TO NEAR 
25N125W.

GAP WINDS OF 20 TO OCCASIONALLY 25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE IN THE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH AT LEAST 48 HOURS. THE WINDS 
WILL LESSEN IN THE AFTERNOON AND INCREASE DURING THE NIGHT.

$$
LL