000
AXPZ20 KNHC 142118
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN DEC 14 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...ALSO KNOW AS THE ITCZ...IS 
ALONG THE LINE...06N77W TO 06.5N115W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS 
96W TO 112W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF 
THE POINT 11N134.5W.

...DISCUSSION...
LARGE SCALE DEEP LAYER TROUGH WITH AXIS FROM 30N98W 20N130W TO 
15N140W. SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND THIN HIGH CLOUDS ARE N OF 
28N E OF 130W OTHERWISE THE AREA WEST OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS DRY 
AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS. OVERCAST 
STRATOCUMULUS IS N OF 17N WEST OF THE AXIS TO 135W. BROKEN 
STRATOCUMULUS IS OBSERVED N OF 20N WEST OF 135W. THE TROUGH IS 
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY THROUGH 72 HOURS AND REMAIN IN PLACE.
THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SURFACE TROUGH IN THE ITCZ WEST OF 125W IN 3 TO 4 DAYS. A PLUME 
OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDS WITHIN 500 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE 
TROUGH AXIS EAST OF 110W AND AREA SOUTH OF THE TROUGH AXIS TO 
THE ITCZ WEST OF 110W. ONLY SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED 
WITH THIS PLUME OF MOISTURE.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS COVERED BY BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. 

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NOTED OVER THE AREA WITH BROAD 
TROUGH ALONG THE ITCZ AND A VERY WEAK RIDGE ALONG 30N. A DYING 
COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA WEST TO NEAR 
25N130W.

GAP WINDS OF 20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO 
REGION THROUGH AT LEAST 48 HOURS. THE WINDS WILL LESSEN IN THE 
AFTERNOON AND INCREASE DURING THE NIGHT.

$$
LL