000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140300
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN DEC 14 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0230 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...ALSO KNOWN AS THE ITCZ... 
IS ALONG THE LINE...05N77W TO 06N100W TO 10N130W TO 08140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE 
POINT 08.5N119W. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ALONG 
THE ITCZ HOWEVER ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY 
FORMED WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 111W TO 120W...INCLUDING 
THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GAP WINDS...
WINDS ARE DIMINISHING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION AND HAVE 
FALLEN TO LESS THAN 20 KT. 

NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE BLOWING OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND 
DOWNSTREAM OUT TO 95W WITH SPEEDS OF 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS ARE UP 
TO 10 FT. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT 
MIDDAY SUNDAY BUT RETURN IN A SMALL AREA NEAR THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY.

ELSEWHERE...
DEEP LAYER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED JUST NORTHWEST OF THE 
NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA NEAR 33N145W. THE ASSOCIATED 
CIRCULATION AFFECTS THE NORTH WEST PART OF THE AREA N OF 25N W 
OF 130W. THE AREA IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 
LEVELS.

OTHERWISE LARGE SCALE DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS OVER THE AREA 
NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM 32N105W TO 10N133W TO 10N140W. THE AREA 
WEST OF THE LINE IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 
LEVELS WITH OVERCAST TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS NORTH OF 17N AND 
BROKEN TO SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS SOUTH OF 17N IN THE LOWER 
LEVELS. A LARGE PLUME OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROKEN MULTI 
LEVEL CLOUDS EXTENDS WITHIN 600 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE IS 
ADVECTING OVER MEXICO MAINLY NORTH OF 20N. THIS DEEP LAYER 
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 48 HOURS.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS UNDER BROAD WEAK ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. 
EXCEPT FOR SOME ITCZ CONVECTION THE AREA SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE 
FROM 22N97W TO 15N112W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 140W IS DRY AND CLOUD 
FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS. BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS IS 
OBSERVED SOUTH OF THE ITCZ FROM 100W TO 120W.

WEAK RIDGE IS WEST OF A LINE FROM 32N122W TO 20N110W TO 13N140W. 
TRADES IN THIS REGION ARE LESS THAN NORMAL.

ELSEWHERE A WEAK LOW 1011 MB IS ANALYZED NEAR 12N128W. THE LOW 
IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN WITH A TROUGH REMAINING BEYOND 48 HOURS.

$$
LL