000 AXPZ20 KNHC 121609 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC FRI DEC 12 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0915 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 05N77W TO 05N80W TO 07N87W TO 07N93W TO 06N103W TO 11N115W TO 12N124W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 150 NM ALONG AND N OF AXIS E BETWEEN 105W AND S AMERICAN COAST. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION FROM 08N TO 15N BETWEEN 112W AND 125W ASSOCIATED WITH TWO WESTWARD MOVING PERTURBATIONS ALONG THE ITCZ. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 240 NM OF 08N134W IS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD MOVING EASTERLY WAVE. ...DISCUSSION... GAP WINDS... NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO FUNNEL THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS MORNING AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A PARTIAL HIGH-RES QSCAT PASS JUST PRIOR TO 12Z INDICATED CORE WINDS 40 TO 45 KT...SUGGESTING MAX SEAS LIKELY NEAR 14 FEET. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED SOME DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS AS THE MAIN TRAJECTORY OF THE CAA HAS SHIFTED E OF THE GAP. HOWEVER...LATEST GFS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ANOTHER PULSE OF COLD AIR CURRENTLY DIVING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO MAY ENHANCE THESE GAP WINDS OVERNIGHT...BEFORE THE HIGH SLIDES WELL E OF THE AREA AND A SIGNIFICANT DECREASING TREND IN WIND AND SEAS BEGINS SAT THROUGH SUN. QSCAT PASS JUST PRIOR TO 12Z REVEAL GAP WINDS IN GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND FONSECA OCCURRING DUE TO THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LEADING COLD FRONT JUST OFF THE E COAST OF NICARAGUA. THESE GAP WINDS...ESPECIALLY PAPAGAYO... ARE ANTICIPATED TO BLOW FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW WARNING CRITERIA. ELSEWHERE... HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN COVERS THE WRN PART OF THE DISCUSSION ZONE. THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM AN EMBEDDED UPPER LOW NEAR 29N128W...WITH A NEW SHORT WAVE NOW DROPPING INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND ADJACENT PACIFIC...AND WILL REINFORCE THE TROUGH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS LARGE SCALE FEATURE IS SHEARING CONVECTION IN THE ITCZ AND SPREADING MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE DEEP TROPICS N AND NEWD ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA...MAINLAND MEXICO AND INTO THE SW CONUS. THE SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA IS ALSO SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS N PORTIONS OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT AND SUN. BEHIND THE FRONT N WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT...ACCOMPANIED BY A CONFUSED MIX OF N AND NW WIND WAVES...AND LONG PERIOD NW SWELL. N TO NW FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THE PAST 24 HOURS HAD DIMINISHED TO AROUND 20 KT BY THIS MORNING...BUT SEAS HAVE YET TO IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH SEAS LIKELY STILL 6-7 FEET WITHIN AND DOWNWIND OF THE MOUTH OF THE GULF. WIND AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THROUGHOUT THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1036 MB CENTRAL PACIFIC HIGH AND A WEAK LOW LEVEL REFLECTION OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A BROAD BELT OF 20-25 KT NE/E TRADES FROM 11N-24N W OF 120W ON THE SE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. AS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA FRONTAL SYSTEM SLIDES S DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...NELY WINDS OF 20-25 KT WILL SHIFT INTO NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA...MAINLY N OF 25N...WHILE WINDS SUBSIDE TO 20 KT OR LESS S OF 20N. $$ STRIPLING