000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100913
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED DEC 10 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ IS ALONG 7N77W 9N115W 8N125W 10N130W 8N140W. NUMEROUS 
STRONG WITHIN 200 NM N AND 150 NM S OF AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

PERSISTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 
24N133W WITH TROUGH FROM THE CIRCULATION TO 14N131W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 360 NM E OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. OVERCAST
MULTI LAYER CLOUDS E OF THE TROUGH FROM THE ITCZ TO 26N BETWEEN 
120W-127W. DOWNSTREAM UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS FROM 32N120W 
TO AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 12N107W. DIFFLUENT 
UPPER LEVEL FLOW W OF THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS ENHANCING 
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AND 
ITCZ FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 112W-119W. DEEP LAYER TROUGH FROM NEAR 
THE TEXAS BIG BEND ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF 
THE BAJA PENINSULA. A 95-105 KT JET STREAM EXTENDS FROM SW NEW 
MEXICO TO NORTHERN MEXICO NEAR 26N103W TO S TEXAS. AN UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ACROSS CENTRAL 
AMERICA TO THE GULF OF PANAMA. EXCEPT FOR SOME SCATTERED TSTMS 
OVER THE GULF OF PANAMA STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE AIR 
COVERS THE AREA S OF 16N E OF 109W.

A COUPLE OF TROUGHS ARE ANALYZED ALONG THE ITCZ. THE FIRST FROM
13N115W TO 7N117W. NUMEROUS TSTMS ARE WITHIN 290 NM W AND 180 NM 
E OF THE TROUGH. SECOND TROUGH FROM 14N131W TO 6N133W. NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. HIGH PRES WILL 
BUILD BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO AND 
TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AND INCREASE WINDS TO 
GALE FORCE IN THE TEHUANTEPEC TONIGHT.
 
$$
DGS