000
AXPZ20 KNHC 061603
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT DEC 06 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1515 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 06N77W TO 08N90W TO 07N107W TO 09N130W TO 08N140W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM S OF AXIS FROM 
90W-102W AND WITHIN 90 NM S OF AXIS FROM 126W-129W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION FROM 32N125W HAS TROUGH SW TO 
SECOND CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 24N137W THEN S TO 08N140W.  BROAD 
MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FOLLOWS DOWNSTREAM ALONG 114W CENTERED AT 
10N115W.  JET STREAM 100 KT BETWEEN VORTEX AND RIDGE CAUSING 
MODERATE DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 113W ENHANCING 
MODERATE DEEP CONVECTION.  LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
WITH AXIS FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THROUGH GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
TO 00N97W.  MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE E OF 107W EXCEPT MINOR 
MOISTURE WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION JUST S OF ITCZ FROM 
90W-102W.

AT THE SURFACE...
WEAK TROUGH FROM 07N-12N ALONG 113W HAS LITTLE CONVECTION 
ASSOCIATED BUT APPROACHES AREA OF MODERATE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT 
FLOW WHICH LIKELY ENHANCE ITS DEEP CONVECTION AS IT MOVES W AT 
15 KT.  SECOND TROUGH FROM 06N-16N ALONG 131W APPROACHING VERY 
DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE CHANCE OF DEVELOPING 
ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION...UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS NOT 
FAVORABLE EITHER.

HIGH PRES CENTER WELL N OF AREA HAS RIDGE EXTEND SE TO 14N110W 
KEEP LID ON CLOUD DEVELOPMENT BUT TOO FAR N TO SUPPORT ANY 
SIGNIFICANT STRENGTH IN TRADE WINDS.  NW SWELL TRAIN LINGERS 
ACROSS E PAC W OF 120W THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD.   

GALE EVENT IN GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ENDED AT 1200 UTC BUT STRONG 
NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THERE AND ACROSS GULF OF PAPAGAYO FOR AT 
LEAST 24 MORE HRS.

$$
WALLY BARNES