000 AXPZ20 KNHC 050338 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC FRI DEC 05 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0315 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS CENTERED ALONG 7N78W 6N90W 6N103W 9N115W 7N128W 6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 96W-102W AND WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 122W-125W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 90W-93W. ...DISCUSSION... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A RATHER SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SW TO A DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING SSW 20 KT NEAR 30N132W. TO THE SW OF THE TROUGH...THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN IS ZONAL EXCEPT S OF 17N BETWEEN 107W-130W WHERE MID/UPPER RIDGING COVERS THAT PORTION OF THE AREA. A BROAD AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE COVERS THE AREA FROM 13N TO 21N BETWEEN 105W AND 116W. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY SHIFT E TO THE ERN UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE TO THE NW OF THE TROUGH SPILLS EASTWARD...AND THE LOW CONTINUES SW TO THE FAR NW PART OF THE REGION BY SAT. A WELL PRONOUNCED CUT-OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPPING SSW IS ALSO SHOWN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO BE W OF THE AREA NEAR 21N145W. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO BE ABSORBED INTO THE LOW NEAR 30N132W FRI NIGHT. THIS WILL MAINTAIN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH SAT AS THE LOW STAYS OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTION. THE LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH/LOW FEATURE FORMING DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS FEATURE SHOULD RESULT IN A TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT OVER THE NW PORTION EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT INTERACTS WITH HIGH PRES RIDGING THAT STRENGTHENS AS IT BUILDS SE INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA. YET ANOTHER GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE EVENT IS FORECAST TO BEGIN IN ABOUT 6 HOURS AS HIGH PRES PRES SURGES SWD FROM TEXAS INTO SE MEXICO. THIS EVENT SHOULD AGAIN BE BRIEF AND LAST THROUGH AROUND 12 UTC SAT MORNING BEFORE SUBSIDING AS HIGH PRES OVER MEXICO WEAKENS. PRESENTLY...WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAVE INCREASED TO 20-30 KT BASED ON A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM AROUND 0022 UTC THIS EVENING. ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE WINDS TO 20 KT WERE NOTED BY THE SAME QUIKSCAT PASS AS MENTIONED ABOVE WITH GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO POSSIBLY REACH TO NEAR 25 KT NEAR 12 UTC FRI MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING BACK TO 20 KT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...QUIKSCAT DATA ALSO CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF A SWATH OF NE 20 KT WINDS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 89W-99W SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AMERICA WILL BE ENHANCED SOME OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS BY THE SAME HIGH PRES THAT AFFECTED THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WINDS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THIS AREA OF WINDS TO TRANSLATE WESTWARD TO NEAR 111W IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. LATEST NOAA WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SEAS WILL PEAK UP TO 10 FT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IN ABOUT 6 HOURS THEN SUBSIDE TO TO 8 FT ON SAT NIGHT. NE SWELL WILL LIKELY SPREAD W FROM THE GULF OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO BEFORE DECAYING FURTHER. ELSEWHERE...NE WINDS TO 20 KT ARE NOTED IN QUIKSCAT DATA TO COVER THE AREA N OF 8N AND W OF 130W...HOWEVER THE MAIN IMPACT IN THAT AREA CONTINUES TO BE NW SWELL OF 8-11 FT. THESE SWELLS SHOULD SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH SAT...BUT REMAIN HIGH OVER THE NW PART INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. $$ AGUIRRE