000
AXPZ20 KNHC 042205
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU DEC 04 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS CENTERED ALONG 7N78W 7N90W 
6N101W 9N115W 9N130W 7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 96W-101W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 126W-129W.

...DISCUSSION...

AFTER THE RECENT BRIEF GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE 
EVENT...CONDITIONS HAVE BECOME RATHER IN THAT PORTION OF THE 
AREA BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AGAIN IN ABOUT 12 HOURS AS LOW 
PRES EXITS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND HIGH PRES SURGES SWD THROUGH 
SOUTHERN TEXAS AND INTO MEXICO. THIS EVENT SHOULD AGAIN BE BRIEF 
AND LAST THROUGH LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING BEFORE 
SUBSIDING.

ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE WINDS TO 20 KT WERE NOTED BY A
A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM NEAR 1200 UTC THIS MORNING. THESE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO POSSIBLY REACH TO NEAR 30 KT IN ABOUT 24 HOURS BEFORE
DIMINISHING AGAIN TO 20 KT IN 48 HOURS. DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO...QUIKSCAT DATA FROM THIS MORNING CONFIRMED THE 
PRESENCE OF A SWATH OF NE 20 KT WINDS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 89W-99W
SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AMERICA WILL BE ENHANCED SOME
OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS BY THE SAME HIGH PRES THAT AFFECTED 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WINDS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THIS AREA OF 
WINDS TO TRANSLATE WESTWARD TO NEAR 111W BY ABOUT 48 HOURS.

LATEST NOAA WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT SEAS WILL PEAK UP TO 
10 FT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IN ABOUT 12 HOURS THEN SUBSIDE 
TO TO 8 FT ON SAT. NE SWELL WILL LIKELY SPREAD W FROM THE GULF 
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO BEFORE DECAYING FURTHER.

ELSEWHERE...NE WINDS TO 20 KT ARE NOTED IN QUIKSCAT DATA TO COVER
THE AREA N OF 8N AND W OF 130W...HOWEVER THE MAIN IMPACT IN THAT
AREA CONTINUES TO BE NW SWELL OF 8-11 FT. THESE SWELLS SHOULD
SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH SAT...BUT REMAIN HIGH OVER THE NW PART
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
COVERING THE AREA FROM 7N TO 15N BETWEEN 115W AND 130W...AND IS 
ENHANCING ITCZ CONVECTION NEAR 8N125W. WELL PRONOUNCED CUT-OFF 
UPPER LEVEL LOW W OF THE AREA NEAR 21N143W IS FORECAST TO BE 
ABSORBED INTO AN UPCOMING UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT DROPS SW INTO THE 
NW CORNER OF THE AREA FRI NIGHT. THIS WILL MAINTAIN AN UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH SAT 
AS THE LOW STAYS OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTION.

$$
AGUIRRE