000
AXPZ20 KNHC 032220
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED DEC 03 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2200 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS CENTERED ALONG 7N78W 
5N100W 9N122W 7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 007N78W TO 
05N100W TO 09N122W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED/STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 121W-124W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS W 
OF 133W.

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRES SURGING SWD ACROSS MUCH OF MEXICO CONTINUE TO SUSTAIN
RATHER STRONG N T O NE WINDS JUST BELOW GALE FORCE THROUGH THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...AND NE OF 20 TO 25 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO. QUIKSCAT DATA FROM THIS MORNING OVER THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC REVEALED N TO NE WINDS OF 30-40 KT WITHIN ABOUT 90 
NM OF THE COAST...WITH A BAND OF NEAR 20 KT WINDS FANNING OUT 
SOUTHWEST FROM THERE TO NEAR 11N98W. NOAA WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE 
SUGGESTS WAVE HEIGHTS OF UP TO 9 FT DOWNWIND OF THIS REGION IN 
MIXED SW AND N SWELL. AS LOW PRES EXITS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER
THE 12-18 HOURS...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REACHING MINIMAL GALE FORCE
IN ABOUT 36 HOURS AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS SWD ONCE AGAIN INTO
SOUTHERN TEXAS AND MEXICO. THIS EVENT SHOULD LAST THROUGH LATE
FRI NIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING.

DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...QUIKSCAT DATA FROM THIS 
MORNING CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF NE 20 TO 25 KT WINDS WITHIN 
ABOUT 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF 10.5N E OF 88.5W. A BROADER AREA OF 
15 TO 20 KT WINDS SURROUNDS THIS AREA...RUNNING GENERALLY FROM 
08N TO 12N E OF 91W. THE SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE 
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SUSTAINING THIS EVENT WILL WEAKEN SLOWLY OVER 
THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...HOWEVER THE WINDS THERE ARE EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE THROUGH FRI MORNING...THEN WEAKEN SOME BEFORE 
INCREASING AGAIN ON SAT AS JUST LIKE THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRES BUILDING SWD INTO MEXICO WILL ALLOW 
FOR WINDS DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TO INCREASE. NOAA 
WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE INDICATES SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT OVER MUCH OF THE 
ABOVE AREA...WITH NE SWELL LIKELY SPREADING FARTHER W OVER THE 
NEXT DAY OR TWO BEFORE DECAYING FURTHER.

ELSEWHERE...A BAND OF ENHANCED TRADES EXISTS FROM 08N TO 15N W 
OF 125W...A RESULT OF STRONGER-THAN-AVERAGE SUBTROPICAL RIDGING 
JUST NW OF THE AREA. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT ASSOCIATED PARENT
HIGH CENTER OF 1031 MB N OF THE AREA NEAR 34N137W WILL SHIFT WSW
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS ALLOWING FOR THE TRADES TO WEAKEN...AND
BE CONFINED TO THE FAR W PART OF THE AREA AT THAT TIME. AT THE
TIME NOAA WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE SHOWS SEAS OF 8-11 FT OVER MUCH
OF THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH 24 HOURS...BUT 
SUBSIDING TO 8 FT BY FRI AFTERNOON.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
COVERING THE AREA FROM 7N TO 15N BETWEEN 124W AND 137W...AND IS
ENHANCING ITCZ CONVECTION W OF 120W. WELL PRONOUNCED CUT-OFF
UPPER LEVEL W OF THE AREA NEAR 17N146W IS FORECAST TO BE ABSORBED
INTO AN UPCOMING UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT DROPS SW INTO THE NW CORNER
OF THE AREA FRI NIGHT. THIS WILL MAINTAIN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE 
PATTERN IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH SAT AS THE LOW 
STAYS OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTION.

$$
AGUIRRE