000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030342
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED DEC 03 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG 7N77W 5N90W 5N100W
6N110W 8N120W 7N130W 6N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 125W-129W.

...DISCUSSION...

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA W OF AROUND 120W. SLY FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE AND 
A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION W OF THE AREA IS ADVECTING MOISTURE AND 
BROKEN/OVERCAST MULTI LAYER CLOUDS N OF THE ITCZ W OF 132W.
SHORT WAVE TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM 28N117W
TO 21N112W. BROKEN/OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE 
SOUTHERN PART OF THE BAJA PENINSULA INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS E OF THE TROUGH FROM A WEAK MID LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 22N109W NE TO NEW MEXICO. 

DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. EXTENDS S ACROSS THE 
GULF OF MEXICO INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MEXICO TO 15N106W.
EXCEPT FOR A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST OF COSTA RICA MODERATE 
TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE AIR COVERS THE AREA E OF 
105W.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE DEEP TROPICS WITH AXIS FROM 12N113W
TO THE EQUATOR AT 110W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS S OF 15N
BETWEEN 105W AND 120W.

RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE AREA THROUGH 32N130W...AND CONTINUES 
TO 22N113W WITH THE ASSOCIATED HIGH PRES OF 1029 MB N OF THE 
AREA NEAR 35N134W. BROKEN/OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BLANKET 
THE ARE N OF 16N W OF 115W.
 
HIGH PRES OVER GULF OF MEXICO HAS TIGHTENED THE GRADIENT ACROSS 
SOUTHERN MEXICO WITH GALE FORCE WINDS INTO THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC REACHING SPEEDS OF UP TO 45 KT...BUT EXPECTED TO 
DIMINISH IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.

A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM NEAR 2336 UTC HAS REVEALED GULF OF PAPAGAYO 
NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT COVERING THE AREA FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 
85W-89W. LATEST COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THESE 
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY THU MORNING.

$$
AGUIRRE