000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300351
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN NOV 30 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS 08N80W TO 05N91W TO 07N101W TO 06N115W TO 07N133W TO 
06N140W.  NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
FLATTENED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM 24N108W TO CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 
26N126W THEN TO 28N140W PRODUCING RARE CASE OF EASTERLIES ALOFT 
WITH 100 KT JET CORE JUST N OF AXIS. MID-UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE 
SUPPORTS SURFACE HIGH PRES CENTER 1029 MB N OF 15N BEING FORCED 
S BY APPROACHING COLD FRONT PRESENTLY ALONG 146W.  AIR MASS VERY 
DRY N OF TROUGH AXIS WHILE ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTED 
BY WESTERLY JET CORE S AND SE OF AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO INTO 
SE TEXAS FEEDING ENERGY TO COLD FRONT ENTERING GULF OF MEXICO.
 
ELSEWHERE...QUASI-ZONAL WESTERLY FROM 15N-25N BETWEEN 105W-130W 
HELP IN ADVECTING MOSITURE ACROSS E PAC.  WEAKENING ANTICYCLONE 
GYRE OVER PANAMA MAINTAINS REMAINDER OF BASIN FAIRLY DRY WITH 
ONLY MINOR INTRUSION OF WATER ALONG ITCZ E OF 88W.

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...
WEAK TROUGH ALONG 131W FROM 08N-13N MOVING AT 15 KT AROUND SRN
PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRES RIDGE SHOULD GET GOOD HELP FROM MOISTURE 
LADEN AIR MASS AND UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW TO STRENGTHEN ALTHOUGH 
IT SHOULD BE CLOSE TO THE EDGE OF FORECAST WATER BY THEN.

HIGH PRES ALSO ENHANCING STRONG TRADE WINDS FROM 10N-22N W OF 
120W AND FORCING NW WINDS ALONG BOTH SIDE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA 
COAST.  LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS SPREADING S ACROSS E PAC 
WILL IMPACT BASIN W OF 110W.

$$
WALLY BARNES