000
AXPZ20 KNHC 292153
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT NOV 29 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS 09N78W TO 06N100W TO 05N115W TO 08N128W TO 05N140W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM OF AXIS E OF 88W.

...DISCUSSION...
FLATTENED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM 26N109W TO 26N130W TO 28N140W
PRODUCING A RARE CASE OF EASTERLIES ALOFT WITH 75-90 KT JET CORE.
MID-UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE SUPPORTS SURFACE HIGH PRES CENTER 
1029 MB BEING FORCED S BY APPROACHING COLD FRONT PRESENTLY ALONG 
148W.  AIR MASS VERY DRY N OF TROUGH AXIS WHILE ABUNDANT 
TROPICAL MOISTURE IS ADVECTED BY WESTERLY JET CORE S AND SE OF 
AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO INTO SE TEXAS FEEDING ENERGY TO COLD 
FRONT ENTERING GULF OF MEXICO.      
 
ELSEWHERE...QUASI-ZONAL WESTERLY FROM 15N-26N BETWEEN 105W-130W 
HELP IN ADVECTING MOSITURE ACROSS E PAC.  WEAKENING ANTICYCLONE 
GYRE OVER PANAMA MAINTAINS REMAINDER OF BASIN FAIRLY DRY WITH 
ONLY MINOR INTRUSION OF WATER ALONG ITCZ E OF 88W.

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...
WEAK TROUGH ALONG 133W FROM 07N-12N MOVING AT 15 KT AROUND 
PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRES RIDGE SHOULD GET GOOD HELP FROM MOISTURE 
LADEN AIR MASS AND UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW TO STRENGTHEN ALTHOUGH 
IT SHOULD BE CLOSE TO THE EDGE OF FORECAST WATER BY THEN.

HIGH PRES ALSO ENHANCING STRONG TRADE WINDS FROM 10N-22N W OF 
120W AND FORCING NW WINDS ALONG BOTH SIDE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA 
COAST.  LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS SPREADING S ACROSS E PAC 
WILL IMPACT BASIN W OF 110W.

$$
WALLY BARNES