000
AXPZ20 KNHC 290349
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU NOV 27 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 07N77W TO 04N93W TO 05N105W TO 05N120W TO 
08N131W TO 07N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM 
OF AXIS E OF 85W AND WITHIN 180 NM N OF AXIS W OF 132W.

...DISCUSSION...
LARGE SCALE MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SW FROM 32N110W TO 
CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 24N131W THEN W TO 26N140W KEEPS E PAC VERY 
DRY N AND W OF AXIS.  STRENGTHENING JET CORE 105 KT SWEEPS S OF 
VORTEX ADVECTING ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE WHICH HEADS NE TO 
CENTRAL MEXICO AND EVENTUALLY FEED LOW PRES CENTER 1011 MB AND 
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ALONG TEXAS SE COAST.  UPPER TROUGH 
EXPECTED TO SHIFT NE AS BROAD MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED 
OVER SE PANAMA MAINTAINS HOLD OF REMAINDER OF BASIN.  RIDGE KEEP 
AIR MASS VERY DRY SW OF JET CORE EXCEPT MINOR AMOUNTS OF 
MOISTURE ALONG ITCZ E OF 90W. 

AT THE SURFACE...
HIGH PRES 1030 MB AT 36N134W HAS RIDGE EXTENDING TO 15N110W 
KEEPING LID ON CONVECTION UNDER ITS UMBRELLA.  ONLY CONVECTION 
IS ALONG ITCZ W OF 126W UNDER UPPER DIFFLUENT AREA CAUSED BY JET 
CORE.  RIDGE MAINTAINING STRONG TRADE WINDS FROM 10N-22N W OF 
120W THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD AND STRONG NW-N WINDS ALONG SRN AND 
BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST E OF 126W.  LARGE 10-12 FT LONG PERIOD NW  
SWELLS SPREAD REACHING AS FAR S AS EQUATOR BY END OF FORECAST 
PERIOD. 

$$
WALLY BARNES