000
AXPZ20 KNHC 282201
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED NOV 26 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 08N83W TO 05N95W TO 06N106W TO 06N117W TO 
08N134W TO 08N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM 
OF AXIS E OF 89W AND WITHIN 180 NM N OF AXIS W OF 126W.

...DISCUSSION...
LARGE SCALE MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SW FROM 32N112W TO 
CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 25N131W THEN W TO 24N140W KEEPS E PAC VERY 
DRY N AND W OF AXIS.  STRENGTHENING JET CORE 110 KT SWEEPS S OF 
VORTEX ADVECTING ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE WHICH HEADS NE TO 
CENTRAL MEXICO AND EVENTUALLY FEED LOW PRES CENTER 1011 MB AND 
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ALONG TEXAS SE COAST.  UPPER TROUGH 
EXPECTED TO SHIFT NE AS BROAD MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED 
OVER SE PANAMA MAINTAINS HOLD OF REMAINDER OF BASIN.  RIDGE KEEP 
AIR MASS VERY DRY SW OF JET CORE EXCEPT MINOR AMOUNTS OF 
MOISTURE ALONG ITCZ E OF 90W. 

AT THE SURFACE...
HIGH PRES 1031 MB AT 35N133W HAS RIDGE EXTENDING TO 13N110W 
KEEPING LID ON CONVECTION UNDER ITS UMBRELLA.  ONLY CONVECTION 
NOTED IS ALONG ITCZ W OF 126W UNDER UPPER DIFFLUENT AREA CAUSED 
BY JET CORE.  RIDGE MAINTAINING STRONG TRADE WINDS FROM 10N-22N 
W OF 120W THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD.  

NW SWELLS SPREAD W OF 115W REACHING AS FAR S AS EQUATOR BY END 
OF FORECAST PERIOD. 

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...MODELS SUGGEST BACK-DOOR TYPE COLD FRONT 
APPROACH BASIN WITH HIGH PRES MOVING OVER WRN U.S. OVER NEXT 24 
HRS RESULTING IN INCREASE OF NW WINDS OVER GULF LATE IN FORECAST 
PERIOD. 

$$
WALLY BARNES