000
AXPZ20 KNHC 281516
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED NOV 26 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 09N79W TO 05N95W TO 06N115W TO 
08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 180 NM OF AXIS E OF 88W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 240 NM N OF AXIS W OF 134W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE LARGE SCALE MID-UPPER PATTERN CONSISTS OF AN ELONGATED 
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE SW CONUS TO 23N140W AND AN AMPLIFIED 
RIDGE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. THESE FEATURES CONTINUE TO 
SUPPORT A SWLY JET FROM THE DEEP TROPICS ACROSS SRN BAJA AND 
INTO CENTRAL MEXICO. WHILE MUCH OF THE ASSOCIATED TAPPED 
MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE ONLY MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS...THERE 
ARE LIKELY PATCHES OF SCATTERED TSTMS ESPECIALLY FROM 09N-16N W 
OF 126W. NWP MODELS FORECAST DEEPENING OF THE TROUGH OVER THE SW 
CONUS AS ANOTHER AMPLIFIED RIDGE BUILDS E TOWARD CALIFORNIA. 
THIS WILL LIKELY ENHANCE THE JET AND ORIENTATE IT MORE E-W.

SFC PATTERN IS FAIRLY TRANQUIL DOMINATED BY A 1028 MB HIGH NEAR 
35N134W. THIS FEATURE IS MAINTAINING NE 20-25 KT TRADES ACROSS 
THE W PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION ZONE. HOWEVER...TRADES WILL 
SLACKEN SOME OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSSURE 
SYSTEMS TRACK NW OF THE AREA HELPING TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE 
SLIGHTY. WHILE STRONG TRADES ARE CONFINED TO A RELATIVELY SMALL 
PORTION OF THE AREA...NW SWELL IS ELEVATING SEAS TO 8-10 FT OVER 
MUCH OF THE ZONE W OF 115W. THIS SWELL WILL BE REINFORCED AS 
ANOTHER LONG PERIOD TRAIN...WITH WAVE PERIODS OF 18-20+ 
SECONDS...ENTERS THE NW PORTION TOMORROW.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...MODELS SUGGEST A BACK-DOOR TYPE COLD FRONT 
NEARING THE AREA AND STRONG HIGH PRES SETTING UP OVER THE WRN 
U.S. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY 
RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN N WINDS OVER THE GULF SUN AND MON.

$$
CANGIALOSI