000
AXPZ20 KNHC 271519
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU NOV 27 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 08N82W TO 05N95W TO 09N120W TO 
06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE 
AXIS E OF 85W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND EMBEDDED ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS FROM 08N-10N BETWEEN 134W-137W.

...DISCUSSION...

A DEEP LAYER LOW PRES SYSTEM OVER THE SW CONUS IS INDUCING 
MID-UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS THE N WATERS. THIS FEATURE COMBINED 
WITH RIDGING OVER CENTRAL AMERICA HAS SET UP A SW JET TAPPING 
MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICS ACROSS SRN BAJA. WHILE MOST OF THE 
MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE HIGH CLOUDINESS...PATCHES OF CONVECTION 
HAVE RECENTLY FORMED FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 126W-128W AND FROM 
19N-21N BETWEEN 115W-118W. THIS WEATHER IS LIKELY BEING ENHANCED 
BY SLIGHT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A REMNANT SHEAR 
AXIS ALONG 22N113W 12N129W...EVIDENT IN ASCAT DATA. 

THE ENHANCED SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR 
28N148W AND THE SHEAR LINE IS PRODUCING 20-25 KT NE TRADES. 
THESE WINDS WILL SLACKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS HIGH 
PRES WEAKENS DUE TO AN APPROACHING FRONT. DESPITE THE 
DIMINISHING WINDS...SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVER 8 FT FROM THE 
NEXT 48-72 HOURS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA W OF 115W DUE TO LONG 
PERIOD NW SWELL.

GAP WINDS...
A HI-RES ASCAT PASS FROM 04Z REVEALED 20-25 KT N WINDS FUNNELING 
THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. GFS AND NAM MIX LAYER WINDS ARE 
IN AGREEMENT IN SHOWING WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISHING TODAY WHICH 
APPEARS VERY REASONABLE GIVEN THAT SLY RETURN FLOW HAS SET UP 
OVER THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO. SIMILAR MAGNITUDE NE WINDS ARE 
OCCURRING OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AS REPORTED BY SHIP ZCDF4. 
THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITHIN THE 24 HOURS.

$$
CANGIALOSI