000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270959
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU NOV 27 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0945 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS FLUCTUATES BETWEEN 07N 
AND 09N TO THE E OF 140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED 
FROM 07N TO 14N BETWEEN 117W AND 135W.

...DISCUSSION...

A DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE IS AT 34N120W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SW 
ALONG 20N122W TO BEYOND 17N140W. SOME UPPER MOISTURE IS NOTED N 
OF 26N W OF 125W. ELSEWHERE W OF THE TROUGH A SLOT OF VERY DRY 
UPPER AIR IS INDICATED WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 30N115W 
TO 22N123W TO 19N140W. 

AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CONTINUES NEAR 12N114W WITH A 
SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXTENDING NE ALONG 23N102W TO WELL BEYOND 
32N104W. A MOISTURE PLUME ORIGINATING FROM CENTRAL PACIFIC ITCZ 
CONVECTION IS ADVECTED E ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA WITHIN 120 
NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 12N140W TO 19N119W...WHERE IT MERGES 
WITH MOISTURE FROM FORMER ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 114W AND 132W 
WHICH IS SPREADING N NE UNDER THE RIDGE. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM 
THE ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE AREA FROM 07N TO 14N BETWEEN 117W 
AND 135W ALSO ADDS TO A WELL DEFINED TROPICAL PLUME STREAMING NE 
WITHIN 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 13N121W TO BEYOND 
31N104W. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE FANS OUT OVER THE S CENTRAL CONUS 
BUT SOME ALSO TURNS E IN UPPER ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF 
MEXICO AND FLORIDA N OF 27N.

TO THE E OF THIS UPPER RIDGE...AN UPPER TROUGH IS ALONG 23N80W 
TO 18N95W TO 13N108W THEN CONTINUES S ACROSS THE EQUATOR ALONG 
106W. A TROPICAL UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS W FROM S AMERICA ALONG 10N 
TO NEAR 11N100W. BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND 
OVER THE E PACIFIC ALONG 10N TO THE E OF 93W CONTINUES TO FLARE 
CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA E OF 
86W. THE DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL 
CARIBBEAN IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER RIDGE. OTHERWISE THE UPPER 
LEVELS ARE DRY TO THE S OF 23N BETWEEN 90W AND 110W.

GAP WINDS...NORTHERLY WINDS IN AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF  
TEHUANTEPEC ARE CURRENTLY AT 20 TO 25 KT WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. 
EXPECT THAT A FINAL NORTHERLY SURGE WILL OCCUR AFTER SUNRISE IN 
THAT AREA TODAY THEN CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH TO BELOW 20 KT. NE 
WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL CONTINUE TODAY THEN DIMINISH 
TO LESS THAN 20 KT EARLY TONIGHT.

$$
NELSON