000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260338
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED NOV 26 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 08N81W TO 05N89W TO 11N123W TO 07N140W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM OF AXIS FROM 102W-130W.  

...DISCUSSION...
LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SW FROM CYCLONIC VORTEX 
AT 34N133W TO 20N140W SHIFT NE AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH 
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED AT 11N114W BLOCK FURTHER E INTRUSION INTO E 
PAC.  VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS NW OF TROUGH WHILE 100 KT JET 
CORE ADVECTS PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN SWATH 3 DEG WIDE FROM LINE 
13N140W TO 23N114W TO 32N106W IN NWRN MEXICO.   SECOND UPPER 
LEVEL DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTEND FROM YUCATAN PENINSULA ACROSS BAY 
OF CAMPECHE AND ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC TO CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 
10N102W TO 00N99W. 

VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS ALSO WITHIN 8-10 DEG OF TROUGH AXIS 
EXCEPT ALONG ITCZ WHERE SOME MINOR UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE EXIST 
BETWEEN TROUGH AND UPSTREAM ANTICYCLONE MENTIONED ABOVE. 

AT THE SURFACE...
GALE FORCE WINDS OVER GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC DUE TO HEALTHY HIGH 
PRES OVER GULF OF MEXICO WILL DIMINISH WITHIN NEXT 18 HRS AS 
HIGH PRES SHIFT RAPIDLY E.  FURTHER S...SURFACE LOW PRES 1009 MB 
AT COAST OF NICARAGUA IN SWRN CARIBBEAN ALREADY DUMPING 
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA AND 
PANAMA.  AREA APPEARS IN SATELLITE AS BROAD CIRCULATION WITH 
SWIRLS ON BOTH SIDES OF CENTRAL AMERICA.  STRONG E WINDS OVER SW 
CARIBBEAN N OF LOW PRES SPILL ACROSS GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND 
FONSECA.  GLOBAL MODELS SHOW HINT OF WEAK SURFACE LOW PRES 
FORMING ALONG ITCZ BETWEEN COSTA RICA AND GALAPAGOS WED.  THIS 
WILL PROMPT STRONG WINDS THROUGH PAPAGAYO WED AND THU AS WELL AS 
S-SW WINDS INTO GULF OF PANAMA E OF LOW PRES.

SURFACE TROUGH FROM 29N128W TO 13N125W ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE 
AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE SHOULD STALL AND 
BECOME DIFFUSE AS SOURCE OF ENERGY SHIFTS NE TONIGHT AND WED.  
STRONG WINDS OVER BROAD AREA W OF SURFACE LOW PRES DIMINISH 
WITHIN 24 HRS BUT LINGERING 10-12 FT SWELLS LAST THROUGH 
FORECAST PERIOD N OF 10N.

$$
WALLY BARNES