000
AXPZ20 KNHC 252218
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE NOV 25 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2115 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 07N78W TO 07N83W TO 05N90W TO 09N123W TO 08N140W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM OF AXIS FROM 
99W-105W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION N OF 06N 
E OF 83W.  

...DISCUSSION...
LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SW FROM CYCLONIC VORTEX 
AT 34N133W TO 20N140W SHIFTING NE AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH 
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED AT 10N115W BLOCK FURTHER E INTRUSION INTO E 
PAC.  VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS NW OF TROUGH WHILE 105 KT JET 
CORE ADVECTS PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN SWATH 3 DEG WIDE FROM LINE 
14N140W TO 21N116W TO 32N110W INTO NWRN MEXICO.   SECOND UPPER 
LEVEL DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTEND FROM BAY OF CAMPECHE THROUGH 
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC TO CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 12N100W TO 00N100W. 

VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS ALSO WITHIN 8-10 DEG OF TROUGH AXIS 
EXCEPT ALONG ITCZ WHERE SOME MINOR UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE EXIST 
BETWEEN TROUGH AND UPSTREAM ANTICYCLONE MENTIONED ABOVE. 

AT THE SURFACE...
GALE FORCE WINDS OVER GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC DUE TO HEALTHY HIGH 
PRES OVER GULF OF MEXICO WILL DIMINISH WED AS HIGH PRES SHIFT 
RAPIDLY E.  FURTHER S...SURFACE LOW PRES 1008 MB NEAR COAST OF 
NICARAGUA IN SWRN CARIBBEAN ALREADY DUMPING WIDESPREAD 
PRECIPITATION OVER NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA AND PANAMA.  AREA 
APPEARS IN SATELLITE AS BROAD CIRCULATION COVERING BOTH SIDES OF 
CENTRAL AMERICA.  STRONG E WINDS OVER SW CARIBBEAN N OF LOW PRES 
SPILL ACROSS GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND FONSECA.  GLOBAL MODELS SHOW 
HINT OF WEAK SURFACE LOW PRES FORMING ALONG ITCZ BETWEEN COSTA 
RICA AND GALAPAGOS WED.  THIS WILL PROMPT STRONG WINDS THROUGH 
PAPAGAYO WED AND THU AS WELL AS S-SW WINDS INTO GULF OF PANAMA E 
OF LOW PRES.

COLD FRONT FROM 32N129W TO 23N131W ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE 
AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE SHOULD STALL AND 
BECOME DIFFUSE AS SOURCE OF ENERGY SHIFTS NE TONIGHT AND WED.  
STRONG WINDS OVER BROAD AREA W OF SURFACE LOW PRES DIMINISH 
WITHIN 24 HRS BUT LINGERING 10-12 FT SWELLS LAST THROUGH 
FORECAST PERIOD N OF 10N.

$$
WALLY BARNES