000
AXPZ20 KNHC 251615
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE NOV 25 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1515 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 
05N89W TO 07N98W TO 12N125W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
WITHIN 30 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 100W AND 105W. 

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 110W...
HIGH RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT DATA SHOW GALE FORCE WINDS COMMENCING 
THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...RESULTING FROM STRONG HIGH 
PRES BUILDING TO THE NORTH. THE PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY 
PROGRESSIVE...AND THE HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT RAPIDLY EAST THROUGH 
WED ALLOWING GAP WINDS THROUGH TEHUANTEPEC TO DIMINISH BELOW 
GALE FORCE. FURTHER SOUTH...SURFACE LOW PRES STRADDLES THE SW 
CARIBBEAN OVER COSTA RICA AND PANAMA INTO ADJACENT PACIFIC 
WATERS. 20 TO 25 KT EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN N OF 
THE LOW PRES ARE STARTING TO FUNNEL THROUGH THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW SOME HINT OF WEAK SURFACE LOW PRES 
FORMING ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN COSTA RICA AND THE GALAPAGOS TUE 
AND WED. THIS WILL PROMPT 20 TO 25 KT THROUGH PAPAGAYO WED AND 
THU...WITH 20 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA E OF 
THE WEAK LOW PRES.

W OF 110W...
A DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE IS AT 33N127W WITH A MID TO UPPER TROUGH 
EXTENDING SW TO 22N140W THEN FURTHER WEST TO A CUT OFF UPPER LOW 
NEAR HAWAII. AN ASSOCIATED 1009 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 
30N130W MOVING EAST...WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT FROM 30N125W 
TO 23N128W. SHIP OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW 20 TO 
25 KT WINDS OVER A BROAD AREA W OF THE SURFACE LOW PRES AND E OF 
1025 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NE OF HAWAII. FURTHER TO THE SE A 
VERY WEAK 1013 MB SURFACE LOW...ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER 
TROUGH...IS CENTERED NEAR 20N123W. A SCATTEROMETER PASS FROM 
LAST NIGHT SHOWED 20 TO 25 KT WINDS TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW. THE 
LOW WILL BE ABSORBED INTO THE WEAKENING FRONT LATER TODAY. THE 
LOW COMPLEX SHIFTS EAST WITH UPPER TROUGH...AHEAD OF THE 
ADVANCING RIDGE NOW WEST OF THE AREA. THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS 
EAST WED AND THU...ALLOWING TRADE WINDS TO INCREASE TO THE SOUTH 
OF SURFACE HIGH IN A BROAD BELT MAINLY FROM 10N TO 20N W OF 125W.

$$
CHRISTENSEN