000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250335
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE NOV 25 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0330 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS LIES ALONG 08N82W 06N93W 
10N127W 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 06N TO PANAMA 
E OF 82W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM OF 
AXIS BETWEEN 113W AND 125W.

...DISCUSSION...

A DEEP LAYERED LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N132W IS PROVIDING SUPPORT 
FOR A SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ALONG 30N127W TO 21N140W 
MOVING E 20 KT. STRONG NW WINDS OF UP TO 30 KT ARE OCCURRING 
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GALES NOT TOO FAR N OF THE AREA AT THE 
MOMENT. THE STRONG WINDS HAVE KICKED SEAS UP TO 18 FT ALONG
30N. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO NORTHERN 
BAJA OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. TO THE SE OF THE FRONT...AN 
ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES 
1011 MB NEAR 20N125W TO 10N127W. AXIS OF RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF 
THE UPPER JET EXTENDS NE OF THE LOW PRES AREA NWD TOWARD SRN 
CALIFORNIA. THIS HAS ALLOWED A VAST AREA OF MULTILAYERED CLOUDS 
WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED 
WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE 25N119W TO 20N123W. 

A 1738 UTC HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT PASS VERIFIED THE EXISTENCE OF 
THE SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE LOW 
HAS SINCE MOVED NE TO ITS CURRENT POSITION. EVEN THOUGH THERE IS 
A SURFACE LOW...STILL BELIEVE THE GFS MAY BE TOO STRONG WITH THE 
SYSTEM...MOST NOTABLY WITH THE SURFACE WINDS AND RESULTING WAVE 
FIELD...DUE TO GRID SCALE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. AS A RESULT 
ADJUSTED TOWARD THE WEAKER NOGAPS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS WHICH 
INCORPORATE THE MID LEVEL ENERGY INTO THE LEADING EDGE OF THE 
DEEP LAYER TROUGH MORE RAPIDLY THAN THE GFS AND UKMET.

GAP WINDS...AN EARLIER HIGH RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED 
20-25 KT WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHAUNTEPEC. THESE WINDS ARE 
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN TO GALE FORCE WITHIN 18 HOURS
POSSIBLY REACHING 40 KT TUE EVENING. THIS EVENT IS EXPECTED TO 
BE SHORT-LIVED AS WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN DROP BELOW GALE FORCE BY 
36 TO 42 HOURS. A HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT PASS INDICATED NE WINDS 
OF BARELY 20 KT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THESE WINDS ARE 
EXPECTED TO VARY FROM THE N AND NE IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE FOR 
AT LEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THESE GAP WINDS ARE CURRENTLY BEING 
SUSTAINED BY THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW 
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN AND HIGH PRESSURE 
CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AND GUATEMALA. 

THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME ENHANCED BY THE NORTHERLY FLOW 
EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY TUE 
MORNING BEHIND A COLD FRONT. CONVECTION FROM THE LOW PRESSURE 
SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN WILL LIKELY SEEP WESTWARD 
THROUGH COSTA RICA AND PANAMA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  
CURRENTLY...SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
CAN BE FOUND IN THE FAR EASTERN WATERS N OF 06N BETWEEN 78W AND 
82W.

$$
COBB