000
AXPZ20 KNHC 242138
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON NOV 24 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2130 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS LIES ALONG 09N78W 
07N105W 09N120W 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 06N 
TO PANAMA E OF 82W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 
120 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 110W AND 125W.

...DISCUSSION...

A DEEP LAYERED LOW CENTERED NEAR 32N132W IS PROVIDING SUPPORT 
FOR A SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ALONG 30N129W TO 23N140W
MOVING E 20 KT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO 
NORTHERN BAJA OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. TO ITS SE...AN ELONGATED 
SURFACE TROUGH LIES FROM 11N126W TO 22N123W. MID LEVEL VORTICITY 
CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL BE AMPLIFIED AS THE 
REAR RIGHT QUADRANT OF THE UPPER JET MOVES INTO THE LEADING EDGE 
OF THE DEEP TROUGHING CENTERED OVER NW WATERS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW 
FOR CONTINUED SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS TONIGHT INTO 
TUE. A 1434 UTC HIGH RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED A SMALL 
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE TROUGH NEAR 16N125W WHICH HAS 
SINCE MOVED NE. CURRENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE 20N123W TO 23N120W AND 
WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE 15N117W TO 16.5N123W. EVEN THOUGH THERE IS 
A SURFACE LOW...STILL BELIEVE THE GFS MAY BE TOO STRONG WITH THE 
SYSTEM...MOST NOTABLY WITH THE SURFACE WINDS AND RESULTING WAVE 
FIELD...DUE TO GRID SCALE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. AS A RESULT 
ADJUSTED TOWARD THE WEAKER AND GENERALLY MORE WESTERLY NOGAPS 
AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS WHICH INCORPORATE THE MID LEVEL ENERGY INTO 
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH MORE RAPIDLY THAN THE 
GFS AND UKMET.

GAP WINDS...LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED 20-25 
KT WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHAUNTEPEC. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO 
INCREASE AGAIN TO GALE FORCE WITHIN 24 HOURS...POSSIBLY REACHING 
40 KT. THIS EVENT IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS WINDS WILL 
ONCE AGAIN DROP BELOW GALE FORCE BY 48 HOURS. A HIGH RESOLUTION 
ASCAT PASS INDICATED NE WINDS OF BARELY 20 KT IN THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO...THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VARY FROM THE N AND NE IN 
THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THESE GAP 
WINDS ARE CURRENTLY BEING SUSTAINED BY THE STRONG PRESSURE 
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE FAR SW 
CARIBBEAN AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AND 
GUATEMALA...AND THEY WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE NORTHERLY FLOW 
EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY TOMORROW 
MORNING BEHIND A COLD FRONT. CONVECTION FROM THE LOW PRESSURE 
SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN WILL LIKELY SEEP WESTWARD 
THROUGH COSTA RICA AND PANAMA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  
CURRENTLY...SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
CAN BE FOUND IN THE FAR EASTERN WATERS N OF 05N BETWEEN 78W AND 
81W.

$$
COBB