000
AXPZ20 KNHC 241510
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON NOV 24 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1330 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS LIES ALONG LINE FROM 
07N78W TO 06N95W TO 08N112W TO 10N128W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND WITHIN 120 NM S 
OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 78W AND 81W AND WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 116W AND 122W.

...DISCUSSION...

A DEEP LAYERED LOW CENTERED NEAR 35N133W IS SENDING A SURFACE 
COLD FRONT THROUGH NW WATERS WHICH WILL WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES 
EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN BAJA OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.  TO ITS 
SE...AN ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH LIES FROM 11N127W TO 20N123W.  
MID LEVEL VORTICITY CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL 
BE AMPLIFIED AS THE REAR RIGHT QUADRANT OF THE UPPER JET MOVES 
INTO THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DEEP TROUGHING CENTERED OVER NW 
WATERS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR CONTINUED SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SURFACE 
TROUGH AXIS TODAY.  CURRENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 120W AND 125W.  
WHILE THIS AMPLIFICATION IS EXPECTED...BELIEVE THE GFS MAY BE 
TOO STRONG WITH THE SYSTEM...MOST NOTABLY WITH THE SURFACE WINDS 
AND RESULTING WAVE FIELD...DUE TO GRID SCALE CONVECTIVE 
FEEDBACK.  THEREFORE...ADJUSTED TOWARD THE WEAKER AND GENERALLY 
MORE WESTERLY NOGAPS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS WHICH INCORPORATE THE 
MID LEVEL ENERGY INTO THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH 
MORE RAPIDLY THAN THE GFS AND UKMET.

GAP WINDS...WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW GALE FORCE IN THE GULF OF 
TEHAUNTEPEC FOR THE MOMENT...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO 
GALE FORCE BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.  IN THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE NE IN THE 20 TO 25 
KT RANGE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  THESE GAP WINDS ARE 
CURRENTLY BEING SUSTAINED BY THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN AND 
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AND GUATEMALA...AND 
THEY WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE NORTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED TO BUILD 
OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY TOMORROW MORNING BEHIND A 
COLD FRONT...SIPHONING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF 
TEHAUNTEPEC INTO THE PACIFIC BY AFTERNOON.  IN 
ADDITION...CONVECTION FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE 
SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN WILL LIKELY BLEED WESTWARD THROUGH COSTA 
RICA AND PANAMA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  CURRENTLY...SCATTERED 
MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND IN THE FAR 
EASTERN WATERS N OF 05N BETWEEN 78W AND 81W.

$$
SCHAUER CLARK