000
AXPZ20 KNHC 241008
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON NOV 24 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0945 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N81W TO 
10N128W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 
08N114W TO 10N135W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE IS AT 34N135W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING S 
TO A BASE NEAR 21N133W WITH THIS PATTERN BECOMING NEGATIVE TILT 
WITH TIME. UPPER MOISTURE IS SPREADING SE IN THE WAKE OF THE 
TROUGH OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 27N W OF 133W. OTHERWISE 
DRY UPPER AIR IS INDICATED WITHIN 150 NM W OF THE TROUGH AXIS 
AND ALSO ALONG 21N W OF TROUGH. A LOW LEVEL TROUGH LIES ALONG 
07N130W TO 15N127W TO 20N122W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 
FROM 15N126W TO 19N121W. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THIS CONVECTION... 
AND FROM THE ITCZ CONVECTION DESCRIBED ABOVE...IS ADVECTED NE 
ALONG A PLUME WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF POINTS 12N136W 
21N127W 30N120W AND CONTINUING NE ACROSS EXTREME NW OLD 
MEXICO...SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SW ARIZONA. 

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER COLOMBIA HAS A RIDGE EXTENDING W NW TO 
A CREST ALONG 06N108W 18N11W TO BEYOND 31N100W. SOME OF THE 
DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM ITCZ CONVECTION NEAR 117W CONCENTRATES INTO 
A NARROW 240 NM WIDE MOISTURE PLUME ALONG THE W PERIPHERY OF THE 
UPPER RIDGE...ALONG POINTS 10N113W TO 20N108W...FANNING OUT 
ACROSS NE OLD MEXICO...AND EVENTUALLY TURNING E ACROSS THE SE 
CONUS. CONVECTION IS ALSO ENHANCED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND 
CENTRAL AMERICA E OF 87W...WITH THE DEBRIS MOISTURE SPREADING 
JUST OFFSHORE CENTRAL AMERICA E OF 87W WITH A FEW TSTMS NOW 
FLARING OVER THE PACIFIC S OF COAST RICA. AN EMBEDDED UPPER 
CYCLONE NEAR 13N101W IS WITHIN THE LARGER UPPER RIDGE AND 
APPEARS TO BE ENHANCING NEW TSTMS ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 97W AND 
107W. OTHERWISE...THE UPPER LEVELS ARE VERY DRY S OF 18N E OF 
104W.  

GAP WINDS...NORTHERLY WINDS IN AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF  
TEHUANTEPEC ARE CURRENTLY AT 20 TO 30 KT PER THE LATEST Q SCAT 
PASS...WITH SEAS TO AROUND 11 FT. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO 
DIMINISH TODAY AND TONIGHT THEN ANOTHER SURGE WILL INCREASE TO 
MINIMAL GALE AFTER SUNRISE ON TUE MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH 
WED MORNING...THEN DIMINISHING LATE WED. NE WINDS ARE AT 20 TO 
25 KT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND EXPECTED TO PULSE TO 25 KT 
THROUGH 48 HOURS. BROAD LOW PRESSURE...WITH POSSIBLE TROPICAL 
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL OCCASIONALLY 
BRIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE PAC WATERS ALONG THE 
COAST OF COSTA RICA AND WESTERN PANAMA.

$$
NELSON