000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240336
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON NOV 24 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ALONG 08N83W TO 
05N100W TO 10N127W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90-120 
NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 124W AND 137W...AND BETWEEN 117W AND 120W.

...DISCUSSION...

SHARP DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS SWINGING ACROSS THE FAR NRN PORTION 
OF THE AREA WITH AXIS ALONG 32N134W TO 21N138W. THE TROUGH IS 
BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED N OF 28N. A DEVELOPING CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION AT THE N END OF THE TROUGH NEAR 34N135W IS FORECAST 
TO CUT OFF FROM THE WESTERLIES JUST N OF THE AREA MON. UPPER 
LEVEL JET MAX IS SWEEPING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH TO 
ALONG 130W. THIS JET IS FORECAST TO SWING NE INTO THE LEADING 
EDGE OF THIS TROUGH BY EARLY MON WITH THE REAR RIGHT QUADRANT 
OF THE JET NEAR 20N130W BY MON. AREA OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL 
DIFFLUENCE EXPECTED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THIS POINT. THE GFS 
MODEL SHOWS CONSIDERABLE AMPLIFICATION OF A MID LEVEL VORTICITY 
MAX CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 
17N125W TO 07N130W. THE GFS IS THE STRONGEST SOLUTION WITH THE 
ASSOCIATED SURFACE REFLECTION AND ALSO THE NORTHERNMOST SOLUTION 
WITH THE TRACK OF A LOW BY MON NIGHT. THE GFS IS OVERDONE DUE TO 
GRID SCALE FEEDBACK. HOWEVER....SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 120W AND 
124W.

GAP WINDS...A 0008 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS ONCE AGAIN INDICATED 25 TO 
35 KT WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE GALE HAS BEEN 
EXTENDED FOR ANOTHER 6 HOURS BASED ON THIS. IN ANY EVENT NWP
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN KEEPING WINDS BELOW GALE FORCE IN THE 
AREA UNTIL ANOTHER SURGE PRODUCES ANOTHER ROUND OF MARGINAL GALE 
FORCE WINDS IN THE AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.  

THE SAME QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED NE WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF TO 20 
KT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION WITH A FEW 20-25 KT WINDS 
DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF ALONG 92W.  

CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE 
SW CARIBBEAN MAY OCCASIONALLY SEEP ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA 
INTO PORTIONS OF THE EAST PACIFIC OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS 
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS HELD BACK NORTHERLY SURGES FROM 
ENTERING THE GULF OF PANAMA.

$$
COBB