000
AXPZ20 KNHC 232205
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN NOV 23 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ALONG 09N84W 05N93W 
11N127W 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90-120 NM OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 122W AND 125W...AND BETWEEN 130W AND 138W.

...DISCUSSION...

SHARP DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS SWINGING ACROSS THE FAR NRN PORTION 
OF THE AREA WITH AXIS ALONG 32N136W TO 24N140W. THE TROUGH IS 
BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED N OF 30N. A DEVELOPING CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION N OF THE AREA NEAR 34N137W IS FORECAST TO SLIDE S 
AND CUT OFF FROM THE WESTERLIES JUST N OF THE AREA MON. AN UPPER 
LEVEL JET MAX IS FORECAST TO SWING INTO THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS 
TROUGH BY MON MORNING...BRINGING ITS REAR RIGHT QUADRANT TO NEAR 
20N130W MON MORNING...WITH THE STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE 
EXPECTED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THIS POINT. THE GFS MODEL SHOWS 
CONSIDERABLE AMPLIFICATION OF A MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAX 
CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE 
ITCZ FROM 16N125W TO 07N130W...AS IT REACHES THE VICINITY OF THE 
UPPER JET AND GENERATES NEARLY 6 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION IN THE 
REGION OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AS A RESULT. THE GFS IS THE 
STRONGEST SOLUTION WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE REFLECTION AND IS 
THE MORE NE SOLUTION WITH ITS TRACK BY MON NIGHT. THE GFS IS 
OVERDONE DUE TO GRID SCALE FEEDBACK. 

GAP WINDS...HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT PASS AT 1618 UTC INDICATED
25 TO 30 KT WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT
PASS INDICATED 20 TO 25 KT WINDS IN THE GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND 
FONSECA. NWP MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN DISSIPATING THE GALE 
WARNING CURRENTLY IN EFFECT WITHIN 6 HOURS. ANOTHER SURGE IS 
FORECAST TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF MARGINAL GALE FORCE WINDS 
IN THE AREA WITHIN 48 HOURS.  

CONVECTION IN THE SW CARIBBEAN MAY OCCASIONALLY BLEED WESTWARD 
THROUGH PANAMA AND COSTA RICA INTO FORECAST WATERS THE NEXT FEW 
DAYS. THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE 
WHICH HAS HELD BACK NORTHERLY SURGES FROM ENTERING THE GULF OF 
PANAMA.

$$
COBB