000
AXPZ20 KNHC 231002
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN NOV 23 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0945 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS ALONG 06N78W TO 05N96W 
TO 10N127W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF 08N109W AND ALSO WITHIN 90 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF LINE FROM 08N127W TO 07N140W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN INITIAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIES ALONG 34N122W TO 23N117W TO 
BASE NEAR 14N124W. DRY UPPER AIR IS INDICATED WITHIN 300 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS S OF 30N. A SECOND STRONG 
UPPER TROUGH IS APPROACHING FROM THE NW...AND IS CURRENTLY ALONG 
144W AT 30N. UPPER MOISTURE IS NOTED N OF 12N W OF 130W AND ALSO 
WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 34N114W TO 
31N130W. THE UPPER TROUGH NEAR 120W IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT E 
THEN FILL MON NIGHT. THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER THE 
AREA N OF 23N W OF 125W MON. 

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER COLOMBIA HAS A RIDGE EXTENDING NW 
TO A CREST ALONG 12N113W TO 32N104W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE CONTINUES 
TO ENHANCE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 08N108W 
TO 17N113W. THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED N ALONG 
THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE...ROUGHLY WITHIN 300 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF LINE 13N113W TO 29N100W. CONVECTION IS ALSO ENHANCED 
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA E OF 87W WITH THE 
MOISTURE SPREADING W JUST OFFSHORE CENTRAL AMERICA E OF 87W.
OTHERWISE THE UPPER LEVELS ARE VERY DRY S OF 18N E OF 104W.  

AT THE LOW LEVELS A TROUGH LIES ALONG 30N121W TO 26N123W.
ANOTHER LOW LEVEL TROUGH LIES ALONG 08N129W TO 15N126W WITH A 
FEW CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 300 NM OF ITS AXIS.  

GAP WINDS...NORTHERLY WINDS IN AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF  
TEHUANTEPEC ARE CURRENTLY AT 25-35 KT PER A Q-SCAT PASS...WITH 
SEAS TO AROUND 13 FT. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE 
AROUND SUNSET TODAY. ANOTHER COLD SURGE WILL INCREASE N WINDS TO 
A MINIMAL GALE LATE TUE. NE WINDS ARE AT 20 TO 25 KT IN THE GULF 
OF PAPAGAYO AND EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KT LATER TODAY 
AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TUE BEFORE RELAXING TO 15 TO 20 KT. 
BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IS PREVENTING N WINDS 
FROM BRIDGING ACROSS PANAMA INTO THE PACIFIC.   

$$
NELSON