000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230331
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN NOV 23 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS...09N83W 05N95W 11N124W 
07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90-120 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 108W AND 114W...AND WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS W OF 127W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A SHEARING CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION NEAR 29N118W SWD TO 10N118W. NEAR THE BASE OF THIS 
TROUGH...CONVECTION IS ENHANCED ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS. DIFFLUENT 
UPPER LEVEL SWLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ARE TRANSPORTING 
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE NE ACROSS THE BAJA 
PENINSULA AND MEXICO. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED ON AN 
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN DOMINATES THE EPAC EAST OF 
105W AND SE MEXICO. MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE 
AND IMPLIED DRY AIR MASS IS NOTED WITHIN THE RIDGE SUPPRESSING 
CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ EAST OF 100W. ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL 
RIDGE CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST REGION NEAR 11N143W 
EXTENDS A RIDGE OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE AREA. 

AT THE SURFACE...A 1026 MB HIGH LOCATED N OF AREA NEAR 32N137W 
EXTENDS A RIDGE OVER THE REGION COVERING THE AREA N OF 12N AND W 
OF 110W. THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING A BELT OF 20 KT TRADE WINDS 
MAINLY BETWEEN 7N AND 22N AND W OF 128W. A HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT 
PASS FROM 1822 UTC INDICATED THE AREA OF WINDS WAS SHRINKING. A 
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA 
IN 24 HOURS AND SWEEP EWD ACROSS THE AREA N OF 20N BY LATE MON 
WITH AN INCREASE IN NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. SEAS ARE FORECAST 
TO INCREASE AS WELL AND ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK LATE MON WITH SEAS 
IN THE 12 TO 17 FT RANGE.     

GAP WINDS...A 0034 UTC LOW RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED 
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 25-35 KT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. IT IS 
POSSIBLE 40 KT WINDS ARE STILL OCCURRING IN THE AREA AND A 
SUBSEQUENT HIGH RESOLUTION PASS MAY CONFIRM THIS. THE GALE FORCE 
WINDS SHOULD END WITHIN 24 HOURS AND SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH 
MONDAY. 

THE SAME QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED NE WINDS ARE NOW 20 TO 25 KT IN 
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT 
THESE SPEEDS FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS BEFORE SLOWLY WEAKENING. BROAD 
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IS PREVENTING N WINDS FROM 
BRIDGING ACROSS PANAMA INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA.

$$
COBB