000
AXPZ20 KNHC 222158
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT NOV 22 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS...09N83W 06N92W 10N122W 
07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90-120 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 108W AND 122W...AND WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 
127W AND 130W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CUT-OFF LOW/CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION NEAR 28N121W TO 10N119W. NEAR THE BASE OF THIS 
TROUGH...CONVECTION IS ENHANCED ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS. DIFFLUENT 
UPPER LEVEL SWLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ARE TRANSPORTING 
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE NE ACROSS THE BAJA 
PENINSULA AND MEXICO. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED ON A HIGH 
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN DOMINATES THE EPAC EAST OF 105W AND SE 
MEXICO. MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND IMPLIED 
DRY AIR MASS IS NOTED WITHIN THE RIDGE SUPPRESSING CONVECTION 
ALONG THE ITCZ EAST OF 100W. ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED 
JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST REGION NEAR 11N143W EXTENDS A RIDGE 
OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE AREA. 

AT THE SURFACE...A 1027 MB HIGH LOCATED N OF AREA NEAR 33N138W 
EXTENDS A RIDGE OVER THE REGION COVERING THE AREA N OF 12N AND W 
OF 110W. THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING A BELT OF 20 KT TRADE WINDS 
MAINLY BETWEEN 7N AND 22N AND W OF 128W. A HIGH RESOLUTION 
QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 1526 UTC CONFIRMED THESE WINDS. A COLD FRONT 
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA IN 24 HOURS
AND SWEEP EWD ACROSS THE AREA N OF 20N BY LATE MON WITH AN 
INCREASE IN NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO 
INCREASE AS WELL AND ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK LATE MON WITH SEAS IN 
THE 12 TO 17 FOOT RANGE.     

GAP WINDS...NORTHERLY WINDS IN AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF  
TEHUANTEPEC ARE CURRENTLY 30-45 KT PER A 1204 UTC HIGH 
RESOLUTION Q-SCAT PASS...WITH SEAS TO 14 FT. ADDITIONAL COLD AIR 
IS SURGING INTO THE NW BAY OF CAMPECHE AT THE MOMENT AND SHOULD 
CONTINUE THE GALE EVENT FOR ABOUT ANOTHER 24-30 HOURS. 

NE WINDS ARE 20 TO 30 KT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND ARE 
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT THESE SPEEDS FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS BEFORE
SLOWLY WEAKENING. BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IS 
PREVENTING N WINDS FROM BRIDGING ACROSS PANAMA INTO THE EASTERN 
PACIFIC.   

$$
COBB