000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220333
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT NOV 22 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS CENTERED ALONG 08N83W 
06N95W 09N115W 08N130W 06N140W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 
90-120 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 100W AND 121W. 

...DISCUSSION...
AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N124W THROUGH
A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 26N125W TO A BASE NEAR 20N127W. A 
SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY NOT IN PHASE EXTENDS FROM 
22N120W TO 10N117W. MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS AHEAD OF BOTH 
TROUGHS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN PHASE ALONG 120W N OF 08N 
BY SAT. MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WAS NOTED 
IN THE VICINITY OF BOTH TROUGHS GENERALLY FROM 08N TO 23N 
BETWEEN 120W AND 135W. 

FURTHER E...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED ON A SPRAWLING 
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN DOMINATES THE TROPICAL PACIFIC 
E OF 105W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND THE 
EASTERNMOST TROUGH IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ 
BETWEEN 100W AND 120W. ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED WEST 
OF THE FORECAST REGION IS PRODUCING SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR ACROSS 
MUCH OF THE AREA S OF 20N W OF 120W EXCEPT ALONG THE ITCZ 
AXIS.   
 
AT THE SURFACE...A 1028 MB HIGH LOCATED N OF AREA NEAR 33N138W 
EXTENDS A RIDGE OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA GENERALLY N OF 12N AND 
W OF 110W. THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING A BELT OF TRADE WINDS IN 
THE 20 T0 25 KT RANGE MAINLY BETWEEN 7N AND 22N AND W OF 127W. 
THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN WITH TRADE WINDS SLOWLY 
DECREASING THROUGH 48 HOURS. 
   
GAP WINDS...NORTHERLY WINDS IN AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF  
TEHUANTEPEC HAVE ONCE AGAIN REACHED GALE FORCE. THESE WINDS ARE 
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH 48 HOURS BEFORE DECREASING BELOW 
GALE FORCE. 

A BRIEF LULL IS NOTED IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WITH NE WINDS 
ESTIMATED AT 20 KT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE AGAIN TO 
20-30 KT ON SAT AS YET ANOTHER COLD SURGE PUSHES THROUGH CENTRAL 
AMERICA. STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO SUN. 

$$
COBB