000
AXPZ20 KNHC 191523
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED NOV 19 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...
07N77W TO 07N105W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE POINT 08N111W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVELS
LARGE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE AREA. TROUGH AXIS 
IS ALONG THE LINE FROM SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO TO THE ITCZ NEAR 
125W. THIS TROUGH WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH 24 HOURS BUT REMAIN 
IN PLACE.  ANOTHER TROUGH WITH AN AXIS WEST OF THE AREA AFFECTS 
THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA NW OF A LINE 32N125W TO 20N140W. 
THE AREA NORTHWEST OF THE LINE IS MOIST ALOFT WITH BROKEN HIGH 
LEVEL CLOUDS. THE AREA BETWEEN THE FIRST TROUGH AXIS AND THE 
LEADING EDGE OF THE TROUGH WEST OF THE AREA IS DRY AND CLOUD 
FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS INDICATING SUBSIDENCE IN 
THIS AREA. SOUTHEAST OF THE FIRST TROUGH AXIS SOUTH TO 
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS ADVECTION MOISTURE AND SOME MIDDLE AND 
HIGH LEVELS CLOUDS EMANATING FROM ITCZ CONVECTION OVER MEXICO 
AND CENTRAL AMERICA.  

SURFACE
WEAK STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA 
ALONG A LINE 32N135W TO 28N140W. OTHERWISE WEAK RIDGE IS NORTH 
OF 12N. BROAD TROUGH IS SOUTH OF 12N.
 
GAP WINDS...
STRONG PRES GRADIENT ACROSS ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC RESULTED IN 
STORM FORCE WINDS IN ITS GULF.  QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED LARGE 
SWATH OF 50 KT WINDS IN AREA EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 24 
HOURS BEFORE SUBSIDING TO GALE FORCE. 

SHIP REPORTS SHOW STRONG NE WINDS IN GULFS OF FONSECA AND 
PAPAGAYO AS RESULT OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILD OVER THE WESTERN 
CARIBBEAN.  THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH 48 
HOURS.

$$
LL