000
AXPZ20 KNHC 191002
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED NOV 19 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 07N78W TO 08N119W TO 07N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM OF AXIS FROM 99W TO 114W AND WITHIN 60 
NM N OF AXIS E OF 96W.

...DISCUSSION...
MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATE BASIN E OF 120W N OF ITCZ 
ADVECTING N TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM ITCZ CONVECTIVE DEBRIS.   
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM 32N115W TO 25N117W AND SHORT RIDGE ALONG 
130W COMBINE TO KEEP AREA W OF 120W VERY DRY UNDER DUE TO 
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE.

AT THE SURFACE...
HIGH PRES CENTER 1022 MB AT 32N128W WITH WEAK RIDGE EXTENDING SE 
TO 20N110W.  MAIN EFFECT IS MODERATE TRADES FROM 7N TO 15N W OF 
120W...INCREASING IN STRENGTH AND COVERAGE BY END OF FORECAST 
PERIOD. 
 
GAP WINDS...
STRONG PRES GRADIENT ACROSS ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC RESULTED IN 
ANOTHER SURGE OF STORM FORCE WINDS IN ITS GULF.  QUIKSCAT PASS 
INDICATED LARGE SWATH OF 50 KT WINDS IN AREA EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS BEFORE SUBSIDING DOWN TO GALE 
FORCE BY END OF FORECAST PERIOD. 

SHIP REPORTS SHOW STRONG NE WINDS IN GULFS OF FONSECA AND 
PAPAGAYO AS RESULT OF STATIONARY FRONT FROM WINDWARD PASSAGE TO 
NW COSTA RICA.  THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE NEXT 24 
HOURS AS COLD FRONT ENTER NW CARIBBEAN THU REINFORCING NE FLOW 
IN THAT BASIN.

$$
WALLY BARNES