000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190340
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED NOV 19 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 07N78W 06N108W 08N125W 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
WITHIN 120-180 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 92W AND 125W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60-90 NM  OF AXIS E OF 85W.

...DISCUSSION...
SERIES OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS ARE SWEEPING OVER THE FAR N 
PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE FIRST TROUGH IS SHEARING OUT 
FROM 32N129W TO 26N128W AS IT MOVES NE 20 KT. DOWNSTREAM TROUGH 
EXTENDS FROM S CALIFORNIA SWD THROUGH A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
NEAR 22N114W AND WAS MOVING NE 15 KT. A NARROW SHORTWAVE RIDGE 
WAS NOTED BETWEEN THE TWO TROUGHS N OF 24N ALONG 122W. MODERATE 
TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE AIR COVERS THE AREA W OF 
THE SECOND TROUGH THROUGH THE RIDGE AND ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 
20N W OF 130W. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
REMAINS STATIONARY OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH RIDGE EXTENDING 
WWD ACROSS HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA THEN NW OVER CENTRAL MEXICO 
NWD TO THE RIO GRANDE RIVER. SE FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE IS 
ADVECTING HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 
92W AND 125W NWD TOWARD MEXICO. 

AT THE SURFACE A 1022 MB HIGH WAS LOCATED NEAR 33N128W WITH A 
WEAK RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO 20N110W. THE WEAK HIGH WAS ONLY 
RESULTING IN LOCALIZED MODERATE TRADES FROM 7N TO 15N W OF 120W. 
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N138W TO 29N140W. NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. 
 
GAP WINDS...
STRONG PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS 
RESULTED IN ANOTHER SURGE OF STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC. A 0038 UTC LOW RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED A 
SWATH OF 45 KT WINDS IN THE AREA. THE SUBSEQUENT HIGH RESOLUTION 
PASS WILL LIKELY INDICATE 50-55 KT WINDS. STORM FORCE WINDS ARE 
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 
GALE FORCE. 

THE EDGE OF THE SAME 0038 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED NE 20-25 
KT WINDS IN THE GULF OF FONSECA AND PAPAGAYO. THESE WINDS ARE 
FORECAST TO PICK UP TO 30 KT IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND CONTINUE 
INTO THU. 

$$
COBB